Pafos FC - AEL Limassol prediction 18/09/2026

Pafos FC vs AEL Limassol prediction for the 1st Division match on Sep 18, 2026, at 17:00. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and bookmaker odds, Pafos FC is the clear favorite with a 60% win probability. AEL Limassol has a 12% chance, and the draw is at 28%.

Team Form

Pafos FC comes into this match with a solid recent run: W, D, W, D, D in their last five games. They beat AEK Larnaca 1-0 away, drew 0-0 at home against Olympiakos Nicosia, and won 3-0 at Karmiotissa Polemidion. In European qualifiers, they drew twice with Dinamo Tirana. Pafos FC has not lost in their last five outings.

AEL Limassol's last five results: W, L, W, D, W. They beat Nea Salamis 2-1 at home, suffered a heavy 6-0 defeat at APOEL Nicosia, and defeated Anorthosis Famagusta 2-0. In friendlies, they drew 2-2 with Aris Limassol and won 4-0 at Krasava ENY Ypsonas FC. The 6-0 loss is a concern, but overall they have three wins in five.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head stats heavily favor Pafos FC. In 30 meetings, Pafos FC has 19 wins, AEL Limassol 11, and no draws. The last five clashes all went to Pafos FC: 3-1 (Cup, Apr 2026), 2-1 (Cup, Apr 2026), 1-0 (1st Division, Feb 2026), 1-0 (1st Division, Nov 2025), and 4-0 (1st Division, Jan 2025). AEL Limassol has not beaten Pafos FC in any of those recent encounters.

League Table Positions

In the 1st Division standings, Pafos FC sits 7th with 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3 goals scored, 0 conceded). AEL Limassol is 2nd with 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 loss, 4 goals for, 7 against). Pafos FC has a game in hand and a perfect defensive record so far. At home, Pafos FC has not yet played a league match this season, while AEL Limassol's away form shows 0 points from 1 away game (the 6-0 defeat).

Win Probability: Pafos FC or AEL Limassol?

We calculate the win probability based on odds, form, and H2H. Bookmaker odds imply a strong home advantage: average odds of 1.34 for a Pafos FC win, 2.43 for a draw, and 6.90 for an AEL Limassol victory. After removing the margin, the raw probabilities are around 57% for Pafos FC, 32% for the draw, and 11% for AEL Limassol. Adjusting for the perfect H2H record (5 straight Pafos FC wins) and Pafos FC's unbeaten recent form, we raise the home win chance to 60%. The draw drops to 28%, and AEL Limassol's away win sits at 12%. Pafos FC is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Selected 1X2 odds from bookmakers: home win at 1.35 and 1.33, draw at 2.45 and 2.40, away win at 6.30 and 7.50. These odds clearly point to Pafos FC as the favorite. Our Pafos FC vs AEL Limassol prediction is a home win, with the 1.35 odds offering value. The under 2.5 goals market could also be interesting, given Pafos FC's tight defense and the low-scoring trend in recent H2H meetings. Based on all stats, Pafos FC to win is the safest betting tip.