Atletico Morelia - Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction 05/09/2026

This Atletico Morelia vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca prediction for the Liga de Expansion MX match on Sep 6, 2026 at 01:00 gives Atletico Morelia a 58% win probability. Alebrijes de Oaxaca has only a 15% chance, with a draw at 27%. The odds and head-to-head record clearly favor the home side.

Team Form

Atletico Morelia comes into this match with three wins and two losses in their last five games. They beat Dorados de Sinaloa 0-1 away, lost 1-3 at home to Correcaminos UAT, won 1-2 at Cruz Azul Hidalgo, crushed Cancun FC 4-1 at home, and fell 1-0 at Piratas Veracruz. Their attack has scored 9 goals in the last three home matches, showing strong offensive power at home.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has been inconsistent with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the same period. They drew 1-1 at home against CD Tapatio, lost 2-1 at Tampico Madero, beat CD Tepatitlan de Morelos 1-0 at home, won 0-2 at Tlaxcala FC, and lost 0-2 at home to Dorados de Sinaloa. Away from home, they have only one win in the last three, highlighting a struggle on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head history is heavily one-sided. Atletico Morelia has won 8 of the 10 meetings, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. The last five encounters all ended in Atletico Morelia's favor: a 0-3 away win in Jan 2026, a 3-1 home win in Aug 2025, a 2-1 home win in Feb 2025, a 0-0 draw in Oct 2023, and a 2-1 home win in Apr 2023. Alebrijes de Oaxaca has never beaten Atletico Morelia, and this trend is a major factor in the prediction.

League Table Positions

Atletico Morelia sits 2nd in the overall standings with 12 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses), scoring 12 goals and conceding 8. At home, they are 5th with 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss). Alebrijes de Oaxaca is 11th with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses), only 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Their away form is poor – they are not even in the top 8 away teams, while Atletico Morelia’s away record is 4th best, showing consistency everywhere.

Win Probability: Atletico Morelia or Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Based on the odds, head-to-head dominance, recent form, and home advantage, Atletico Morelia has a 58% chance of winning. The draw is estimated at 27%, and Alebrijes de Oaxaca’s win probability is just 15%. Bookmakers’ average odds of 1.47 for a home win imply a 54% probability after removing the margin, but the 8-2-0 head-to-head record and the visitors’ poor away performances push the real chance higher. Atletico Morelia is the clear favorite for who will win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have odds ranging from 1.44 to 1.50 for an Atletico Morelia win, around 2.40 to 2.50 for the draw, and 4.95 to 5.80 for an Alebrijes de Oaxaca victory. This shows a strong market consensus in favor of the home team. Based on the stats, the prediction is a home win for Atletico Morelia. The betting tips suggest backing the home side, but the value might be in a low-scoring game given Alebrijes de Oaxaca’s recent struggles in front of goal.