Alverca - Arouca prediction 24/10/2026

The Alverca vs Arouca prediction for Oct 24, 2026 points to a home win in the Primeira Liga. The match at FC Alverca Sports Complex has Alverca as the favorite with a 45% chance of winning. The draw is at 28%, while Arouca has a 27% chance.

Team Form

Alverca have three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five matches. On Oct 18, they drew 0-0 with Tondela in the Cup. Before that, they beat Famalicao 4-1 away on Oct 12, Rio Ave 1-0 at home on Sep 19, and Nacional Madeira 3-1 away on Sep 12. Their only recent league defeat was a 1-2 home loss to Braga on Sep 5. That gives Alverca a strong home base for this Alverca vs Arouca betting analysis.

Arouca have two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five games. They beat Estrela Amadora 1-0 on Oct 11 and Maritimo 2-1 on Aug 29. They also drew 2-2 at Sporting Lisbon on Sep 19 and 0-0 at Estoril Praia on Sep 7. The one recent loss was a 1-2 home defeat against Santa Clara on Sep 13. Arouca are solid, but their away form is mixed.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head-to-head record between Alverca and Arouca is level. On Apr 24, 2026, Alverca won 2-1 at home in the Primeira Liga. On Dec 14, 2025, Arouca won 1-0 at home. That leaves the recent H2H record at one Alverca win, one Arouca win and zero draws.

League Table Positions

Arouca are 5th in the Primeira Liga table with 14 points from 8 matches. Alverca sit 8th with 11 points from 8 matches. Arouca have 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 11 goals scored and 7 conceded. Alverca have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 13 goals scored and 12 conceded. Arouca also have only one away win in four away league games, which makes this trip to Alverca more difficult.

Win Probability: Alverca or Arouca?

The win probability for this Alverca vs Arouca match is based on the 1X2 odds, team form, head-to-head record and home advantage. Alverca has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Arouca has a 27% chance. Alverca are therefore the most likely winner, but Arouca are close enough to cause problems.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Alverca as the favorite. The 1X2 odds list Alverca between 2.00 and 2.18, the draw between 2.12 and 3.30, and Arouca between 3.30 and 3.60. The odds imply a home win probability close to 45%, which supports the Alverca vs Arouca prediction. Based on the stats, the final Alverca vs Arouca prediction is a home win for Alverca. The Alverca vs Arouca betting tips point to Alverca to win, with the home venue and the recent three-win form giving them the edge over Arouca.