Arouca - Estrela Amadora prediction 11/10/2026

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora prediction for the Primeira Liga match on October 11, 2026. Based on the stats, Arouca has a 38% chance of winning, while the draw is at 40% and Estrela Amadora has a 22% chance.

Team Form

Arouca's last five matches: draw against Sporting Lisbon (2-2), loss to Santa Clara (1-2), draw with Estoril Praia (0-0), win over Maritimo (2-1), and a loss to FC Porto (0-2). That gives them a form line of D, L, D, W, L. They have been inconsistent, especially at home where they won two of three but also lost to Santa Clara.

Estrela Amadora's recent form: loss to Academico Viseu (0-2), draw with Rio Ave (3-3), win against Braga (2-1), draw with Famalicao (2-2), and a win over Nacional Madeira (3-2). Their last five results: L, D, W, D, W. They are unbeaten in four of five and have scored in every match, showing good attacking form.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head meetings, Arouca won three times and Estrela Amadora won twice. There have been no draws. The most recent clash was on April 19, 2026, when Arouca won 1-0 at home. Overall, Arouca has a slight edge in this matchup, but Estrela Amadora has won on their last two visits to this stadium before that.

League Table Positions

Arouca sits 5th in the Primeira Liga with 11 points from 7 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 10 goals and conceded 7. At home, they have 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 loss) with 7 goals scored and 3 conceded.

Estrela Amadora is 9th with 10 points (2 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 14 goals and conceded 14. Away from home, they are unbeaten with 5 points from 3 matches (1 win, 2 draws) and 8 goals scored, 7 conceded.

Win Probability: Arouca or Estrela Amadora?

Our calculated win probabilities: Arouca 38%, draw 40%, Estrela Amadora 22%. These numbers are based on the average bookmaker odds (home 2.26, draw 2.20, away 3.53), adjusted for recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions. Arouca's home advantage and higher table rank give them a slight edge to win, but Estrela Amadora's solid away form and the historical lack of draws in this fixture make a stalemate the most likely single outcome. Overall, the match is very balanced, and a draw is the safest prediction.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds for this match are 2.26 for an Arouca win, 2.20 for a draw, and 3.53 for an Estrela Amadora win. Bookmakers see this as a very close contest, with the draw priced as the most probable result. Based on the stats, a draw is the most likely outcome, but Arouca could edge it at home. A low-scoring match is expected, given Arouca's solid defense at home and Estrela's tendency to concede on the road.