Athletic Bilbao - Alaves prediction 19/09/2026

Our Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves prediction for the Primera match on Sep 19 at 14:15 is here. Based on the stats, Athletic Bilbao has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Alaves has a 22% chance. The match takes place at San Mamés Stadium.

Team Form

Athletic Bilbao come into this match with a mixed run: D, W, W, L, L in their last five games. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw at home against Elche on Sep 12. Before that, they beat Atletico Madrid 3-0 and won 2-0 away at Celta Vigo. However, losses to Barcelona (2-0) and Sevilla (1-3) show some inconsistency.

Alaves have a similar recent form line: L, L, W, W, D. They lost 0-1 at home to Valencia on Sep 15 and 1-2 away to Racing Santander. Earlier, they scored a big 5-2 home win over Osasuna and beat Villarreal 1-0. Their away form is a concern with two straight losses on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is very close. Across the last 29 meetings, Athletic Bilbao have 10 wins, Alaves have 9, and there have been 10 draws. The last match was in May 2026, where Athletic Bilbao won 4-2 away at Alaves. Before that, Alaves won 1-0 at San Mamés in September 2025. In the last five H2H matches, both teams have won twice and there was one draw.

League Table Positions

In the Primera standings, Alaves sit 6th with 10 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Athletic Bilbao are 9th with 7 points from 5 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Alaves have a strong home record this season but are weaker away, while Athletic Bilbao's home form has been inconsistent. The table shows a tight gap between these sides.

Win Probability: Athletic Bilbao or Alaves?

We calculate the win probability based on odds, form, and H2H stats. The bookmakers' average odds imply probabilities after removing the margin. Athletic Bilbao's average odds are around 1.66, which gives a raw probability of about 60%, but adjusting for the draw and away odds, the true chance is lower. Factoring in Athletic Bilbao's recent home form (D, W, L) and Alaves' away struggles (L, L), we set the probabilities at: Athletic Bilbao win 48%, draw 30%, Alaves win 22%. Athletic Bilbao are the favorites, but the draw is a real possibility given the H2H history.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Athletic Bilbao win at 1.68, draw at 2.16, and Alaves win at 5.80. Bookmakers clearly see Athletic Bilbao as the favorite. Our Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves prediction is a home win, but with caution. The stats suggest a tight game, and the value might be in the draw market. Based on the data, a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Athletic Bilbao is the most likely outcome.