Necaxa - Atlas Guadalajara prediction 16/10/2026

The Necaxa vs Atlas Guadalajara prediction for this Liga MX match on October 16, 2026 at 22:00 points to an away win. Based on recent form, head-to-head data and the league table, Atlas Guadalajara has about a 60% chance of winning, while Necaxa struggles with just a 12% win probability and a 28% chance of a draw.

Team Form

Necaxa is in very poor shape. In their last five Liga MX matches they recorded four losses and one draw: a 2-4 defeat to Club America, a 1-3 loss at Atletico San Luis, a 0-1 home loss to Puebla, a 1-1 draw at Tigres UANL and a 1-3 defeat against Cruz Azul. No wins and only one point from 15 possible – their confidence is clearly low.

Atlas Guadalajara has been much more stable. Their most recent five outings show one win, three draws and only one loss: 1-1 at Chivas Guadalajara, a 3-2 win at Tijuana, a 1-1 home draw with Pumas UNAM, a 5-2 loss at Toluca and a 1-1 draw against Atlante. That single loss came away to the league’s second-placed side, and overall Atlas is hard to beat.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head between Necaxa and Atlas Guadalajara after 24 meetings is evenly split: Necaxa won 5, Atlas won 9, and 10 games ended level. Looking at the last five encounters, Atlas won three times (most recently 1-0 away at Necaxa in January 2026), Necaxa won once (4-0 away in February 2025), and one match ended 0-0 in November 2024. The high number of draws historically suggests tight contests, but Atlas clearly has the upper hand in recent matchups.

League Table Positions

Atlas Guadalajara sits 6th in the overall Liga MX standings with 17 points from 10 games (5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), just three points off the top. They have scored 16 and conceded 17. Necaxa is not listed in the top 12, indicating a position well down the table, and their recent form hints at a spot near the bottom. Atlas also has the second-best away record in the league: 4 wins and only 1 loss in 5 trips, while Necaxa does not appear among the top eight home teams – a clear away-day advantage for Atlas.

Win Probability: Necaxa or Atlas Guadalajara?

After combining the team form, historical head-to-head numbers and the current table positions, we calculate the win probability as follows: Necaxa holds just a 12% chance, the draw has a 28% chance, and Atlas Guadalajara comes out on top with a 60% probability. Atlas’s strong away performances (4 wins in 5) and Necaxa’s four losses in five matches make the visitors the clear favorite, even though the head-to-head shows many draws historically.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this fixture are not yet available. When bookmakers release their 1X2 lines, expect Atlas Guadalajara to be priced as the favorite, given their superior league position and away form. A Necaxa win would be a big upset on current numbers, and the draw looks the best chance of an alternative outcome. Our final Necaxa vs Atlas Guadalajara prediction: Atlas to win, based on the stats and the 60% win probability.