Atyrau - Ordabasy prediction 17/09/2026

The Atyrau vs Ordabasy prediction for September 17, 2026, points to an away win in the Kazakhstan Premier League. Based on the latest odds and league table, Ordabasy enters this match as the clear favorite with a 58% win probability, while Atyrau has just a 20% chance to win at home.

Team Form

Atyrau's recent form is poor. In their last five matches, they have one win, one draw, and three losses. They lost 1-0 away to Kaisar Kyzylorda on Sep 12, beat Kyzylzhar 1-0 away on Sep 05, then lost 3-2 at home to Astana on Aug 30. A 2-0 home loss to Okzhetpes Kokshetau on Aug 16 and a 1-1 home draw with Aktobe on Aug 09 complete the run. Atyrau has struggled to score, with only 18 goals in 24 league games.

Ordabasy comes into this match in strong shape. Their last five results show four wins and one loss. They beat Astana 1-0 at home on Sep 12, lost 2-1 away to Okzhetpes Kokshetau on Sep 05, and thrashed Kyzylzhar 3-0 at home on Aug 29. A 2-1 cup win at FC Altai Oskemen on Aug 19 and a 3-1 home league win over the same opponent on Aug 15 show their scoring power. Ordabasy has netted 48 goals this season, the second-best attack in the league.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favors Ordabasy. In 29 previous meetings, Ordabasy has 13 wins, Atyrau has 6, and 10 matches ended in a draw. The last five encounters show Ordabasy's dominance with one win and four draws. The most recent match on Apr 04, 2026, finished 1-1. Before that, a 2-2 draw on Aug 03, 2025, and a 2-1 Ordabasy win on May 03, 2025. Atyrau last beat Ordabasy back in 2023, but the last four H2H games have all seen both teams score.

League Table Positions

The league table tells a clear story. Ordabasy sits 1st with 58 points from 25 games, having won 18, drawn 4, and lost only 3. They have the best away record in the division with 20 points from 11 trips. Atyrau is 12th with just 23 points from 24 matches, winning only 4 times all season. At home, Atyrau has managed just 2 wins in 12 games, scoring only 8 goals. The 35-point gap between the teams highlights the gulf in class this season.

Win Probability: Atyrau or Ordabasy?

Who will win this match? Our win probability calculation gives Ordabasy a 58% chance, the draw a 22% chance, and Atyrau a 20% chance. We based this on the bookmaker odds, which imply an Ordabasy win probability around 55% after removing the margin, then adjusted upward slightly due to Ordabasy's top form, dominant H2H record, and Atyrau's poor home results. Atyrau's low scoring output and Ordabasy's strong defense - just 18 goals conceded in 25 games - make an away win the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this Atyrau vs Ordabasy match see an away win priced at 1.50, a draw at 2.20, and a home win at 6.00. Bookmakers see Ordabasy as the strong favorite, and the stats back that up. Based on the form, head-to-head record, and league positions, our Atyrau vs Ordabasy prediction is an away victory. The total goals market could also be worth a look, as Ordabasy often scores multiple times on the road.