Molinos El Pirata - Ayacucho FC prediction 06/10/2026

Molinos El Pirata vs Ayacucho FC prediction for the Segunda Division match on October 6, 2026, at 13:00 local time. Based on the stats, Molinos El Pirata is the favorite with a 45% win probability, while the draw sits at 30% and Ayacucho FC has a 25% chance.

Team Form

Molinos El Pirata comes into this match without a win in their last five games (0W-2D-3L). Their recent results:

• Sep 27: Union Comercio 2-0 Molinos El Pirata (L)
• Sep 13: Deportivo Llacuabamba 0-0 Molinos El Pirata (D)
• Sep 7: Molinos El Pirata 2-4 Carlos A. Mannucci (L)
• Aug 23: Academia Deportiva Cantolao 1-1 Molinos El Pirata (D)
• Aug 17: Molinos El Pirata 1-2 Union Comercio (L)

Ayacucho FC has two wins and three losses in the same period. Their last five:

• Sep 26: Ayacucho FC 1-0 Union Minas (W)
• Sep 12: Ayacucho FC 0-2 Sport Huancayo Reserves (L)
• Sep 4: Comerciantes Loreto 5-1 Ayacucho FC (L)
• Aug 22: Ayacucho FC 7-1 Escuela Municipal Deportivo Binacional (W)
• Aug 15: Union Minas 3-1 Ayacucho FC (L)

Ayacucho FC has struggled on the road, conceding eight goals in their last two away matches. Molinos El Pirata, despite the poor run, has a solid home record this season (5W-0D-3L) and will look to bounce back.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times. Molinos El Pirata won once, Ayacucho FC won twice, and there have been no draws. The most recent H2H was in May 2023, when Molinos El Pirata beat Ayacucho FC 2-0 at home. The other two meetings, both in November 2019, ended 2-1 for Ayacucho FC (both at Ayacucho's home). The head-to-head record slightly favors Ayacucho FC historically, but the last direct clash gives Molinos El Pirata a psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Molinos El Pirata is 8th in the Segunda Division overall standings with 25 points from 16 matches (7 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses). Ayacucho FC is not in the top 12, indicating a lower position in the table. The home side also ranks 4th in the away standings (10 points from 8 away games), showing they can grind out results even when not at their best. The gap in the table supports Molinos El Pirata as the stronger side on paper.

Win Probability: Molinos El Pirata or Ayacucho FC?

We calculate the win probability based on form, head-to-head, league position and home advantage. Molinos El Pirata has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Ayacucho FC has a 25% chance. The home team’s better league standing, the 2023 H2H win at this stadium, and a decent home record (5 wins from 8 home games this season) outweigh their recent winless streak. Ayacucho FC’s away form is a concern: they lost 5-1 and 3-1 in their last two trips. The draw probability is relatively high because both teams have been inconsistent, and Molinos El Pirata has drawn two of their last five. Still, the numbers point to a home win as the most likely outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds are not yet available for this fixture. Once the odds are released, they are expected to reflect Molinos El Pirata as the favorite. Our Molinos El Pirata vs Ayacucho FC prediction, based purely on the stats, is a home victory. The 45% win probability suggests value on the home side if the odds are above 2.20. A draw is a realistic second option, while an away win looks unlikely given Ayacucho FC's travel struggles. Always check the latest team news before placing any bet.