Simal - Baku Sporting prediction 22/10/2026

The Simal vs Baku Sporting prediction for October 22, 2026, points to Simal as the favorite with a 45% win probability. This 1 Division match in Azerbaijan kicks off at 08:00 (UTC-3), and the home side looks to take advantage of Baku Sporting's awful form. The draw is at 30%, while Baku Sporting has a 25% chance to cause an upset.

Team Form

Simal's recent results are mixed: W, D, L, D, L. They beat Energetik Mingechevir 4-1 away, drew 1-1 at home with Khankendi, lost 1-4 at home to Sahdag, drew 1-1 away with MOIK Baku, and lost 1-2 at home to Cabrayil FC. That is 8 goals scored and 9 conceded in the last five matches.

Baku Sporting is on a terrible run - five straight losses: L, L, L, L, L. They lost 1-3 at home to MOIK Baku, 0-2 away to Ganjabasar FK, 0-1 at home to Sabail FC, 0-3 away to PFK Simurq Zaqatala, and 0-3 at home to Karvan. Only 1 goal scored and 12 conceded in those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met three times. Baku Sporting leads the head-to-head with 2 wins, while Simal has 1 win. The most recent match was on April 23, 2026, when Simal won 1-0 at home. Before that, Baku Sporting won 1-0 away on December 17, 2025, and 4-1 at home on September 25, 2025. So the H2H record is tight, but Baku Sporting has the historical edge.

League Table Positions

In the overall 1 Division standings, Simal is 6th with 5 points (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), while Baku Sporting is bottom in 10th with 0 points (0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses). Simal's home form is poor - 8th in the home table with only 1 point from 3 home games (0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Baku Sporting does not appear in the away table, meaning they have 0 points from away matches. Both teams struggle in their respective situations, but Simal clearly has the better overall numbers.

Win Probability: Simal or Baku Sporting?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Simal 45%, draw 30%, Baku Sporting 25%. The bookmaker odds (home 2.10, draw 2.25, away 3.50) already make Simal the favorite, and the team's slightly better form and league standing support that. Baku Sporting's five consecutive losses and only 1 goal scored in that period reduce their chances, but the head-to-head record shows they can beat Simal. The draw is a real possibility given Simal's inconsistent home results.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds for Simal vs Baku Sporting are: home win 2.10, draw 2.25, away win 3.50. Bookmakers see Simal as the clear favorite. Our Simal vs Baku Sporting prediction is a home win, but with caution - the stats suggest a low-scoring game, and a draw cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, the home win odds offer value if you trust Simal's ability to finally get a home result against the league's worst team.