Ballymena United - Portadown prediction 26/09/2026

On Sep 26, Ballymena United faces Portadown in the Premiership, and the Ballymena United vs Portadown prediction points to the home side as the favorite. Based on recent form, head-to-head record and league table positions, Ballymena United has a 50% chance of winning, the draw sits at 30%, and Portadown has a 20% chance. This betting tips guide breaks down all the key numbers.

Team Form

Ballymena United comes into this match without a win in their last five outings (D, D, L, D, L). They drew 1-1 away against Dungannon Swifts, 1-1 at home to Carrick Rangers, and 2-2 away at Bangor FC, while losing 3-2 at Coleraine and 2-0 at home to Glentoran. The team has struggled to turn draws into victories, but they have been competitive in most games.

Portadown is in even worse shape. Their last five results read L, D, L, L, L. They lost 3-1 away to Bangor FC, 2-0 at home to Larne, 3-1 away to Cliftonville, and 3-0 at home to Coleraine, with a single 1-1 home draw against Linfield as the only point. Portadown has failed to win any of their last five matches, and their defense has conceded heavily on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record between Ballymena United and Portadown shows 12 home wins for Ballymena United, 5 draws, and 8 away wins for Portadown. In the last five meetings, the results are mixed: Ballymena United won 2-0 away in August 2025, but Portadown won 1-0 at home in December 2025 and 2-1 away in April 2026. The other two clashes ended in draws (1-1 and 0-0). Recent history suggests a tight contest, with Ballymena United holding a slight edge at home.

League Table Positions

In the Premiership standings, Ballymena United sits 9th with 6 points from 7 matches (1 win, 3 draws, 3 losses), scoring 10 goals and conceding 11. Portadown is bottom of the table in 12th place with only 1 point from 8 games (0 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses), having scored just 5 goals and conceded 17. The gap in points and goal difference clearly favors Ballymena United, especially with home advantage.

Win Probability: Ballymena United or Portadown?

After analyzing all available data, the win probability for this match is: Ballymena United 50%, draw 30%, Portadown 20%. These percentages are based on the implied odds from bookmakers (home win around 1.73, draw 2.30, away win 4.20), adjusted for the teams' recent form and league positions. Ballymena United's home factor and Portadown's poor away record increase the home side's chances, but the high number of draws in Ballymena United's recent games keeps the draw probability significant. Portadown's low win probability reflects their struggles this season.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from bookmakers show Ballymena United as the clear favorite. One set of odds lists a home win at 1.73, the draw at 2.30, and an away win at 4.20. Other bookmakers offer similar numbers, with the home win consistently priced below 1.75. Based on the stats, the Ballymena United vs Portadown prediction is that the home team is more likely to take all three points, but a draw cannot be ruled out given the recent H2H results and Ballymena United's tendency to share points. For betting tips, the home win offers value if you trust the form gap, while the draw is a safer hedge.