Turkey - Belgium prediction 12/11/2026

On October 2, 2026, at 15:45, Belgium faces Turkey at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Luik, for the UEFA Nations League. Our Belgium vs Turkey prediction gives the home team a 48% win probability, making them the favorite. The draw stands at 33%, and Turkey has a 19% chance to pull off an upset.

Team Form

Belgium arrives with mixed recent results. In their last five matches, they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses. The wins came away against Italy (2-0) and USA (4-1), while they lost to France (0-1 at home) and Spain (2-1 away), and drew 2-2 at home with Senegal. The home defeat to France just days ago raises some questions about confidence.

Turkey's form is even more worrying. They lost three of their last five games: 1-4 against Italy, 0-1 against France, and 0-1 against Paraguay. The two wins were friendly internationals - 3-0 over North Macedonia and a 3-2 thriller against USA. All those matches were played at home, so Turkey's away form in competitive games remains untested in this cycle.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recent head-to-head record between Belgium and Turkey. The two sides have not met in any official competition in the recent past, so no direct history can be used for this Belgium vs Turkey betting tip.

Win Probability: Belgium or Turkey?

Based on the odds and recent form, the win probability for Belgium vs Turkey breaks down as follows:

• Belgium win: 48%
• Draw: 33%
• Turkey win: 19%

Bookmakers opened with Belgium at 1.85 home odds, the draw at 2.62, and Turkey at 4.75. After removing the margin, the pure odds suggest Belgium around 47-48%. The home advantage at Stade Maurice Dufrasne and Belgium's slightly better recent performances (despite the loss to France) confirm that figure. Turkey's heavy defeats against Italy and France make an away win unlikely. So, the Belgium vs Turkey prediction points clearly to a home victory as the most probable outcome, with a draw being the second most likely scenario.

Odds & Match Prediction

Several bookmakers list these 1X2 odds for Belgium vs Turkey:

• Home win: between 1.48 and 1.85
• Draw: between 2.52 and 2.84
• Away win: between 4.50 and 6.00

The market sees Belgium as the clear favorite. Considering the win probability and Turkey's poor defensive record in recent matches, the betting tip is to back Belgium to win. A correct score of 2-0 or 2-1 for the home side looks feasible based on the stats and team form. However, football is unpredictable, and the draw at odds around 2.70 remains a value option for cautious bettors.