Riga FC - BFC Daugavpils prediction 07/09/2026

The Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils prediction for September 7, 2026 points to a clear favorite. This Virsliga match kicks off at 16:00, and based on the stats, Riga FC has a 65% chance of winning. The draw sits at 23%, and BFC Daugavpils has a 12% chance.

Team Form

Riga FC comes into this match with mixed recent results. Their last five outings show one loss, one win, and three draws (L, W, D, D, D). In their most recent Virsliga game, they lost 3-2 away to Liepajas Metalurgs. Before that, they beat KI Klaksvik 2-1 at home in the UEFA Conference League Qualification. Riga FC also drew 3-3 away at Rigas Futbola Skola and 0-0 away at KI Klaksvik. Their home form in the league is strong, with 12 wins and 2 draws from 14 matches.

BFC Daugavpils has a recent record of one loss, one draw, two wins, and one loss (L, D, W, W, L). They lost 1-0 away to Grobinas SC in their last match. Before that, they drew 0-0 away at FK Progress Super Nova. At home, they beat Tukums 2000 2-0 and Jelgava 2-1. Their away form is a concern, with only 2 wins from 13 road games this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Riga FC. In 23 meetings, Riga FC has 16 wins, BFC Daugavpils has 2, and there have been 5 draws. The last five matches tell the same story. On June 25, 2026, they drew 0-0. On May 8, 2026, Riga FC won 3-1 away. On March 14, 2026, Riga FC won 4-2 at home. In 2025, Riga FC won 1-0 away, and they drew 1-1 at home. Riga FC has not lost to BFC Daugavpils in the last five head-to-head games.

League Table Positions

Riga FC sits 2nd in the Virsliga table with 65 points from 27 matches (20 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 81 goals and conceded 27. BFC Daugavpils is 5th with 37 points from 28 matches (10 wins, 7 draws, 11 losses), scoring 33 and conceding 32. The gap between the two teams is 28 points. At home, Riga FC is unbeaten this season with 12 wins and 2 draws. BFC Daugavpils has struggled away, ranking 7th in the away table with just 11 points from 13 matches.

Win Probability: Riga FC or BFC Daugavpils?

Who will win this match? We calculate Riga FC's win probability at 65%, the draw at 23%, and BFC Daugavpils at 12%. This is based on the odds, where bookmakers price Riga FC around 1.25 to 1.55, implying a 60-65% chance after removing the margin. The head-to-head record, with 16 wins for Riga FC in 23 games, supports this. Riga FC's unbeaten home record and BFC Daugavpils' poor away form add more weight. The league table gap of 28 points confirms the difference in quality. Riga FC is the clear favorite to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds for the Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils match show a strong home bias. The 1X2 market has Riga FC as low as 1.25 and as high as 1.55, the draw between 2.58 and 3.05, and BFC Daugavpils between 6.25 and 10.50. Bookmakers see Riga FC as the heavy favorite. Based on the stats, form, and head-to-head record, our Riga FC vs BFC Daugavpils prediction is a home win. The betting tips point to Riga FC to win, with the home side likely to control the game from the start.