Borussia Dortmund - SC Paderborn 07 prediction 12/09/2026

On September 12, 2026, at 13:30, Borussia Dortmund hosts SC Paderborn 07 at Signal Iduna Park in a Bundesliga match. This Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction gives the home side a 65% win probability, with the draw at 23% and SC Paderborn 07 at 12%. Dortmund comes in as the clear favorite based on form, head-to-head record, and league table position.

Team Form

Borussia Dortmund is in excellent shape. Their last five results are W, W, W, D, W. They beat TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 away, HEBC Hamburg Eimsbutteler 5-0 in the DFB Pokal, Hamburger SV 2-0 at home, drew 2-2 with AS Roma in a friendly, and won 3-2 at Arsenal FC. That is four wins and one draw, with 15 goals scored.

SC Paderborn 07 has been less consistent: L, D, W, D, W. A 0-1 home loss to SC Freiburg, a 0-0 draw at Mainz 05, a 4-2 DFB Pokal win at Phonix Lubeck, a 2-2 friendly draw at Werder Bremen, and a 2-0 friendly win at VfL Osnabruck. They have struggled to score in Bundesliga play, with no goals in their last two league matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Borussia Dortmund. In five previous meetings, Dortmund has three wins, two draws, and zero losses. The most recent clash was a 2-2 draw in the DFB Pokal in February 2021. Before that, Dortmund won 6-1 at SC Paderborn 07 in May 2020 and 3-2 at home in November 2019. A 2017 friendly also ended 6-1 for Dortmund. SC Paderborn 07 has never beaten Dortmund, and the goal difference is 19-8.

League Table Positions

Borussia Dortmund sits 2nd in the Bundesliga with 6 points from two wins, scoring 5 goals and conceding 2. SC Paderborn 07 is not in the top 12 of the overall standings, but their away record shows 1 point from one away match (0-0 at Mainz), placing them 6th in the away table. The gap in quality is clear, with Dortmund challenging for the top and Paderborn fighting to stay competitive.

Win Probability: Borussia Dortmund or SC Paderborn 07?

We calculate the win probability for this match using odds, recent form, head-to-head data, and league positions. Borussia Dortmund has a 65% chance to win, the draw is at 23%, and SC Paderborn 07 has a 12% chance. These numbers are based on the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home win ~1.25, draw ~3.00, away win ~7.00), then adjusted upward for Dortmund's perfect Bundesliga start, dominant H2H, and home advantage at Signal Iduna Park. Paderborn's low scoring output in the league further reduces their chances. So, the answer to who will win is clearly Borussia Dortmund.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Borussia Dortmund as the strong favorite. The best available odds for a home win are around 1.20 to 1.27, the draw is priced between 2.90 and 3.20, and an away win for SC Paderborn 07 is as high as 6.50 to 7.50. These odds reflect a high probability of a Dortmund victory. Our Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction is a home win, and the betting tip is to back Dortmund to win, possibly with a -1.5 Asian handicap given their scoring form. Based on the stats, a 2-0 or 3-1 scoreline looks realistic.