Union Berlin - Borussia Dortmund prediction 17/10/2026

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction for Oct 17: Borussia Dortmund arrives as the clear favorite for this Bundesliga match at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin. The game starts at 10:30, and our analysis gives Borussia Dortmund a 60% chance to win, with Union Berlin at 16% and the draw at 24%. The home team has a poor recent record against this opponent, and the odds also point to an away win.

Forma das Equipes

Union Berlin has two wins and three losses in the last five results: W, W, L, L, L. The wins came against SV Elversberg 1-0 on Oct 10 and Rijeka 1-0 in a Friendly Clubs match on Sep 26. The losses were heavy: 7-0 away to Bayern Munich on Sep 18, 3-1 at home to Schalke 04 on Sep 11, and 4-0 away to Bayer Leverkusen on Sep 5.

Borussia Dortmund has one draw and four wins in the last five results: D, W, W, W, W. The team drew 2-2 with Werder Bremen on Oct 9, beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 away, beat SC Paderborn 07 3-0 at home, beat Villarreal 3-2 at home in the UEFA Champions League, and beat TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 away.

Confronto Direto

Borussia Dortmund leads the head-to-head record with 11 wins, while Union Berlin has 5 wins and there are 2 draws. The last five meetings were all won by Borussia Dortmund:

• Jan 24: Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund - Bundesliga
• Aug 31 2025: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Union Berlin - Bundesliga
• Feb 22 2025: Borussia Dortmund 6-0 Union Berlin - Bundesliga
• Mar 2 2024: Union Berlin 0-2 Borussia Dortmund - Bundesliga
• Oct 7 2023: Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Union Berlin - Bundesliga

Posições na Tabela da Liga

Borussia Dortmund is 1st in the Bundesliga overall table with 13 points from 5 matches. The record is 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses, with 11 goals scored and 4 conceded. Union Berlin is not among the top 12 in the overall table. In the away table, Borussia Dortmund is also 1st with 6 points from 2 away wins, 4 goals scored and 2 conceded.

Probabilidade de Vitória: Union Berlin ou Borussia Dortmund?

Using the 1X2 odds as a base, the inverse of the averaged odds and removal of the bookmaker margin gives Borussia Dortmund about 48% win probability. The recent form and the head-to-head strengthen this number. Our final win probability for this Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction is: Borussia Dortmund 60%, draw 24%, Union Berlin 16%.

The reasoning is simple: Borussia Dortmund is 1st in the league, has four wins in five recent matches, and won each of the last five H2H games. Union Berlin lost three matches in this sequence: 7-0 to Bayern Munich, 3-1 to Schalke 04 and 4-0 to Bayer Leverkusen. Together, those three defeats saw 14 goals conceded. So, who will win? Borussia Dortmund is the most likely winner.

Odds e Palpite para o Jogo

The 1X2 odds from bookmakers range between 3.80 and 4.90 for Union Berlin, 2.50 and 4.40 for the draw, and 1.68 and 2.05 for Borussia Dortmund. The lowest away price is 1.68, which confirms Borussia Dortmund as the favorite. Based on the stats, the final match prediction is an away win for Borussia Dortmund.

Our betting tips for this Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction focus on the away side. The numbers support Borussia Dortmund to win the match in Berlin.