Sweden - Bosnia-Herzegovina prediction 14/11/2026

If you are looking for a direct answer to the Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden prediction, here it is: the match will be played on October 2, 2026, at the Bilino Polje stadium in Zenica, valid for the UEFA Nations League. The bookmakers see Sweden as a slight favorite with a 32% win probability, but the numbers point to a very balanced duel with a high chance of a draw.

Team Form

Bosnia-Herzegovina comes from an away win over Romania (4-2) on September 28, in a match that showed offensive power. Before that, they drew 0-0 with Poland and suffered a2-0 defeat to the USA in the World Cup. In the last five games, the team recorded two wins, one draw and two losses, a sequence that reveals instability but also the ability to surprise away from home.

Sweden, on the other hand, has two consecutive home wins in the Nations League:3-1 against Poland and2-1 over Romania. However, the World Cup campaign was weak, with heavy defeats to France (3-0) and the Netherlands (5-1). The last five matches show two wins, one draw and two losses, exactly the same record as the home team.

Head-to-Head Record

These two teams have never faced each other before. The head-to-head record is completely blank, with zero wins for Bosnia-Herzegovina, zero draws and zero wins for Sweden. That makes any prediction based on past meetings impossible, so the focus goes entirely to current form and statistics.

League Table Positions

The available standings do not show both teams in the same table, as they have played all their games so far in different conditions. Sweden leads the home form table with two wins in two matches, scoring five goals and conceding two. Bosnia-Herzegovina appears in the away form table in5th place, with four points from one win and one draw, scoring four goals and conceding two. This will be the first home game for Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Nations League and the first away match for Sweden.

Win Probability: Bosnia-Herzegovina or Sweden?

Based on odds, recent form and the home factor, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Bosnia-Herzegovina win:31%
• Draw:37%
• Sweden win:32%

The margin is very small. Sweden appears with a tiny advantage mainly because the average odds give them a slightly higher implied probability. However, the draw is the most likely single outcome, a common scenario when two teams with similar recent records meet for the first time. Bosnia-Herzegovina playing at home for the first time in the competition could increase their chances, but the odds still favor a balanced match.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for the1X2 market vary among bookmakers. For a Bosnia-Herzegovina win, the prices range from2.40 to2.92. The draw is offered between2.22 and2.30, while a Sweden victory pays from2.30 to2.75. These numbers confirm the bookmakers' view: no clear favorite, with a slight inclination toward the away side.

Considering all the data, the safest prediction for Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Sweden is a draw or a narrow win for Sweden. The over/under market can also be interesting, as both teams have shown they can score and concede. Our final tip: a low-risk bet on the double chance Sweden or draw, or a bet on both teams to score, taking into account the recent offensive numbers of both sides.