Septemvri Sofia - Botev Plovdiv prediction 19/09/2026

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv prediction for the 1st League match on September 19, 2026 at 13:30. Based on the odds, head-to-head record, and recent form, Botev Plovdiv enters this game as the favorite with a 48% win probability. Septemvri Sofia has a 28% chance, and the draw is at 24%.

Team Form

Septemvri Sofia comes into this match with mixed results. Their last five games show two wins, one draw, and two losses (L, D, W, W, L). At home, they lost 2-3 to Botev Vratsa on Sep 04, drew 1-1 at Slavia Sofia, beat CSKA 1948 Sofia 1-0, and lost 0-3 to CSKA Sofia. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 13 in 8 league matches.

Botev Plovdiv's recent form is also inconsistent with two wins and three losses in their last five (W, W, L, L, L). They beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 at home on Sep 13 and won 3-2 at FC Arda Kardzhali, but lost to Levski Sofia, Botev Vratsa, and Ludogorets Razgrad. Overall, they have 11 goals scored and 14 conceded in 8 games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Botev Plovdiv. In the last 15 meetings, Botev Plovdiv has 13 wins, Septemvri Sofia has 2, and there have been 0 draws. The most recent match on Mar 03, 2026 saw Botev Plovdiv win 2-0 at home. Earlier, on Sep 21, 2025, Botev Plovdiv won 3-1 away. Septemvri Sofia's last win in this fixture was a 1-0 home victory on Nov 04, 2024.

League Table Positions

In the 1st League standings, Botev Plovdiv sits 7th with 10 points from 8 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Septemvri Sofia is 9th with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). The gap is just 2 points, but Botev Plovdiv has a better away record with 3 wins in 4 road games, while Septemvri Sofia has only 1 home win in 4 attempts.

Win Probability: Septemvri Sofia or Botev Plovdiv?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the best available odds and adjusting for team form and head-to-head stats, the win probability for this match is: Septemvri Sofia 28%, draw 24%, Botev Plovdiv 48%. The odds imply a tight contest, but Botev Plovdiv's dominant H2H record (13 wins in 15 games) and stronger away form give them a clear edge. Septemvri Sofia's home struggles and negative goal difference reduce their chances. The draw probability reflects the competitive nature of the league, but a winner is more likely based on past meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv match show home win around 4.50, draw at 2.15-2.25, and away win at 2.18-2.30. These odds confirm Botev Plovdiv as the favorite. Based on the stats, the head-to-head dominance, and the current form, our prediction leans towards an away win for Botev Plovdiv. The value might be on the away side given the historical results. A correct score bet could also be worth considering, as Botev Plovdiv often scores multiple goals in this fixture.