Puerto Montt - Cd San Luis DE Quillota prediction 12/10/2026

On Oct 12 at 12:30, Puerto Montt host Cd San Luis DE Quillota at home in the Primera B match. The home side lost their last three away games, while the visitors arrive with four wins from their last five. The win probability analysis gives Cd San Luis DE Quillota a 48% chance to take the three points. Puerto Montt has a 30% chance, and the draw is 22%. Who will win? The stats point to the away team, but the home advantage keeps it close.

Team Form

Puerto Montt are struggling. They have four losses in the last five matches, with the only win coming at home against Curico Unido (2-0). Away losses to Deportes Copiapo (3-0), Magallanes (2-0) and Deportes Temuco (3-1) show problems at the back. Scoring just one goal in those three away trips is a big worry.

Cd San Luis DE Quillota are in much better shape. They won four of the last five games - beating Union Espanola 2-0 at home, winning 1-0 at Union San Felipe, beating Antofagasta 2-1 and thrashing Cobreloa 4-2 at home. The only dropped points were a 0-0 draw at Union San Felipe. That strong run has them right near the top of the table.

Head-to-Head Record

This fixture is balanced over the long run. In the last 10 meetings across all competitions, Puerto Montt have 4 wins, Cd San Luis DE Quillota have 3 wins, and 3 matches ended in a draw. The most recent match was in May 2026, when Cd San Luis DE Quillota beat Puerto Montt 4-1 at home. The last time Puerto Montt hosted this match, they lost 0-1 back in April 2023. The recent H2H edge is with the away team.

League Table Positions

Cd San Luis DE Quillota sit 2nd in the Primera B table with 47 points from 26 games. They have 13 wins, 8 draws and just 5 losses. Puerto Montt are 11th with 34 points from 26 matches (10 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses). The 13-point gap shows a clear difference in quality this season. Cd San Luis DE Quillota also have a strong home record, but away they have won 4, drawn 4 and lost 4 in 12 games.

Win Probability: Puerto Montt or Cd San Luis DE Quillota?

The win probability numbers break down to: Cd San Luis DE Quillota 48%, Puerto Montt 30%, draw 22%. We base this on the inverse of the average odds, adjusted for recent form and table position. Bookmakers have away odds around 2.40 and home odds around 3.80. Removing the margin gives a clear edge to the away side. Cd San Luis DE Quillota's great form (four wins in five) and their 2nd-place standing push their chance near 50%. Puerto Montt's poor recent results and lower rank drag their chance down to 30%, even with home advantage. A draw is a real possibility at 22% given three draws in the last ten H2H games, but the likely outcome is an away win.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best pre-match odds from bookmakers show home win around 4.03, the draw around 3.78, and an away win around 1.93. The market clearly sees Cd San Luis DE Quillota as the favorite. Based on the stats, form and league positions, the prediction is an away win. The betting tips for this Primera B match lean toward backing Cd San Luis DE Quillota to win, possibly with a clean sheet given Puerto Montt's scoring issues. A 1-0 or 2-0 win for the visitors looks likely. Always check the latest odds before placing any bets.