CD Tepatitlan de Morelos - Atletico Morelia prediction 09/10/2026

The CD Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico Morelia prediction for October 9, 2026, points to an away win in the Liga de Expansion MX. Based on current form, league table positions, and head-to-head stats, Atletico Morelia has a 45% probability of winning, while the draw sits at 35% and CD Tepatitlan de Morelos at 20%. The match kicks off at 22:00 local time.

Team Form

CD Tepatitlan de Morelos comes into this match with poor recent results. In their last five games, they have one win and four losses. That lone victory was a 3-1 home win over Tampico Madero on October 2. Before that, they suffered heavy defeats: 0-1 at home to Mineros de Zacatecas, 0-5 away to Venados FC, 1-4 at home to Dorados de Sinaloa, and 0-6 away to Cruz Azul Hidalgo. The team has struggled defensively, conceding 16 goals in those five matches.

Atletico Morelia, on the other hand, shows much stronger form. Their last five matches produced three wins, one draw, and one loss. The most recent result was a 1-1 home draw against Tlaxcala FC on October 3. Before that, they lost 1-2 away to Venados FC, then beat Leones Negros UDG 2-0 at home, won 1-0 away at Mineros de Zacatecas, and crushed Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4-1 at home. With 10 goals scored and only 4 conceded in that stretch, Atletico Morelia looks solid on both ends.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors CD Tepatitlan de Morelos. In 13 previous meetings, CD Tepatitlan de Morelos won 6 times, Atletico Morelia won 2, and 5 matches ended in a draw. The last five encounters show a clear pattern: CD Tepatitlan de Morelos won four of them, all at home, while Atletico Morelia’s only win came at home in March 2026 (3-2). The most recent clash at this stadium was on October 3, 2025, when CD Tepatitlan de Morelos won 3-2. Despite the historical advantage, current form suggests a different outcome this time.

League Table Positions

Atletico Morelia sits 2nd in the overall Liga de Expansion MX standings with 22 points from 11 matches (7 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). They have scored 21 goals and conceded 12. CD Tepatitlan de Morelos is not among the top 12 teams in the table, indicating a much lower position. In the home standings, Atletico Morelia ranks 2nd with 13 points from 6 home games (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Away from home, they are 4th with 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 2 losses). The gap in quality and consistency is significant.

Win Probability: CD Tepatitlan de Morelos or Atletico Morelia?

After analyzing all available data, the win probability for this match is: CD Tepatitlan de Morelos 20%, draw 35%, Atletico Morelia 45%. These numbers are based on the bookmakers' odds (home 4.20, draw 2.50, away 2.20), adjusted for the massive difference in recent form and league position. While the head-to-head record gives CD Tepatitlan de Morelos some hope, their current run of four losses in five games and a leaky defense make an upset unlikely. Atletico Morelia’s solid attack and top-table standing make them the clear favorite to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this CD Tepatitlan de Morelos vs Atletico Morelia match are: home win at 4.20, draw at 2.50, and away win at 2.20. Bookmakers see Atletico Morelia as the favorite, which aligns with the form guide. Our betting tips point to an away victory as the most probable outcome. Considering the stats, a low-scoring game is possible, but Atletico Morelia should have enough quality to secure the three points. The final prediction is an Atletico Morelia win, with a 45% chance of happening.