Mafra - CF Os Belenenses prediction 11/10/2026

The Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses prediction for October 11, 2026, in the Tercera Liga points to an away win, with CF Os Belenenses holding a 40% chance of victory. Mafra enters with a 28% probability, while the draw sits at 32%. This match preview covers team form, head-to-head record, league table positions, win probability, and the latest odds.

Team Form

Mafra's recent form is inconsistent: in their last five matches they recorded one win, two draws, and two losses (D, L, W, D, L). At home, they beat Sporting Covilha 1-0 and drew 1-1 with Tirsense in the Cup, but suffered a 2-1 away loss to UD Oliveirense and a 2-1 defeat at Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora. CF Os Belenenses, on the other hand, are in perfect form with five straight wins (W, W, W, W, W). They beat Beira Mar 2-0 away in the Cup, Atletico Clube de Portugal 1-0 at home, Vitoria de Sernache 3-1 away, Lusitano Ginasio Clube Evora 2-1 away in the Cup, and UD Santarem 5-0 at home. The visitors arrive full of confidence.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors CF Os Belenenses. In 8 previous meetings, Mafra has never won (0 wins), with 4 draws and 4 wins for CF Os Belenenses. The last five encounters, all in Tercera Liga except one in Segunda Liga, show the same pattern: CF Os Belenenses won 3-1 on May 16, 2026, 4-1 on March 22, 2026, and 2-1 on November 9, 2025, while the other two ended in draws (1-1 on August 9, 2025, and 1-1 on February 2, 2024). Mafra has struggled to contain CF Os Belenenses in recent clashes.

League Table Positions

CF Os Belenenses sit top of the Tercera Liga with 15 points from 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, goals 13-2). Mafra are 9th with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, goals 9-5). At home, Mafra have a perfect record (2 wins, 6 goals scored, 0 conceded), while CF Os Belenenses are also perfect away (2 wins, 6 goals scored, 2 conceded). Despite Mafra's strong home numbers, the overall league gap and CF Os Belenenses' flawless start make them the clear favorites on paper.

Win Probability: Mafra or CF Os Belenenses?

Based on the available data, the win probabilities are: Mafra 28%, draw 32%, and CF Os Belenenses 40%. These figures are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.96, draw 2.45, away 2.61), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for recent form and head-to-head dominance. The bookmakers initially see the draw as the most likely single outcome, but CF Os Belenenses' five-match winning streak and their unbeaten H2H record (4 wins, 4 draws) tilt the balance in their favor. Mafra's perfect home record this season is a mitigating factor, yet their overall inconsistency and poor history against this opponent reduce their chances. The conclusion: CF Os Belenenses is the more probable winner, but a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average odds for this match are: Mafra win at 2.96, draw at 2.45, and CF Os Belenenses win at 2.61. These odds reflect a tight contest, with bookmakers slightly favoring the draw. However, our Mafra vs CF Os Belenenses prediction, factoring in the visitors' dominant form and head-to-head edge, leans towards an away win. Based on the stats, CF Os Belenenses is the more likely side to take all three points, but the high draw probability suggests a cautious approach for betting tips. A low-scoring encounter or a narrow away victory are the most realistic outcomes.