Cherno More Varna - Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction 21/10/2026

Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction for the Cup match on October 21, 2026, at 12:30. Based on recent form, head-to-head stats, and bookmaker odds, Cherno More Varna is the favorite with a 48% win probability. The draw sits at 28% and Lokomotiv Plovdiv has a 24% chance.

Team Form

Cherno More Varna comes into this match with mixed results. In their last five games, they have two wins, two losses, and one draw. The most recent was a 3-0 away win against Marek Dupnica in the Cup on October 17. Before that, they lost 0-2 at home to Levski Sofia in the 1st League, and suffered a heavy 0-5 friendly defeat to Ludogorets Razgrad. A 1-0 friendly win over Dunav Ruse and a 1-1 league draw with FC Arda Kardzhali complete the picture. The team has been inconsistent, especially in competitive matches.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv also shows a mixed bag: two wins, two draws, and one loss in the last five. They beat Yantra Gabrovo 2-0 away in the Cup on October 16, drew 1-1 with Lokomotiv Sofia in the league, and won a friendly 2-0 against FC Arda Kardzhali. A 1-1 home draw with CSKA Sofia and a 0-2 away loss to Botev Plovdiv in the league round out their recent form. On the road, they have been solid, with a win and two draws in their last three away trips across all competitions.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record between Cherno More Varna and Lokomotiv Plovdiv is close: 14 wins for Cherno More Varna, 16 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, and 8 draws. Looking at the last five meetings, Cherno More Varna has the edge with two wins, one Lokomotiv Plovdiv win, and two draws. The most recent clash was on September 6, 2026, when Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 1-0 at home. Before that, Cherno More Varna won 2-0 at home in May 2026, and 1-0 away in April 2026. The other two matches ended 1-1. This tight history suggests another close contest is likely.

Win Probability: Cherno More Varna or Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

After analyzing the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities: Cherno More Varna 48%, draw 28%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 24%. These numbers are based on the inverse of the best available odds (home 2.18, draw 3.17, away 3.94), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted for recent form and H2H trends. Cherno More Varna benefits from playing at home and a slightly better recent H2H record, but their inconsistent league form keeps the probability below 50%. Lokomotiv Plovdiv’s decent away performances give them a realistic chance, while the high draw probability reflects the frequency of stalemates in this fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Cherno More Varna as the favorite, with odds around 2.18 for a home win. The draw is priced at 3.17, and an away win for Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 3.94. These odds imply a clear favorite, but not an overwhelming one. Our Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction is that the home side is the more likely winner, but the value might lie in the draw market given the H2H history. Based on the stats, a low-scoring match is possible, and a 1-0 or 1-1 result would not be a surprise. Always check the latest team news before placing any bets.