Cherno More Varna - Lokomotiv Sofia prediction 11/09/2026

Our Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction looks ahead to the 1st League match on Sep 11 at 18:00. Based on the latest odds, head-to-head record, and team form, Cherno More Varna enters this match as the favorite with a 47% win probability.

Team Form

Cherno More Varna comes into this match with a poor recent run. Their last five results show one win and four losses (L, W, L, L, L). The only victory in that stretch was a 3-1 home win against Dunav Ruse on Aug 21. Defeats came against CSKA Sofia (3-1), CSKA 1948 Sofia (4-1), Ludogorets Razgrad (3-2), and Botev Plovdiv (1-0).

Lokomotiv Sofia's form is also weak but they have been harder to beat lately. Their last five matches ended in three draws and two losses (D, D, L, L, D). They drew 2-2 away at Dunav Ruse, 0-0 at home against CSKA Sofia, and 1-1 at Slavia Sofia. The two losses were against FC Arda Kardzhali (3-1) and CSKA 1948 Sofia (3-1).

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head meetings, Cherno More Varna has a clear edge with three wins, one draw, and one loss. The most recent match on Nov 22, 2025 saw Lokomotiv Sofia win 1-0 away. Before that, Cherno More Varna was unbeaten in four straight, including a 4-0 home win in Dec 2024 and a 3-0 home win in Apr 2024. The overall H2H record across nine matches shows 5 wins for Cherno More Varna, 3 draws, and 1 win for Lokomotiv Sofia.

League Table Positions

Cherno More Varna sits 12th in the 1st League standings with 4 points from 8 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 6 losses). They have scored 8 goals and conceded 17. Lokomotiv Sofia is not listed in the top 8 of the provided overall, home, or away standings, which suggests they are also in the lower part of the table. The home team's record at home is not among the top eight either, indicating struggles in front of their own fans.

Win Probability: Cherno More Varna or Lokomotiv Sofia?

We calculate the win probability based on the available odds, recent form, and head-to-head data. The bookmaker odds imply a home win chance around 47%, a draw at 33%, and an away win near 20%. Cherno More Varna's strong H2H record at home (two big wins in the last three home meetings) supports the favorite tag, but their current form is a concern. Lokomotiv Sofia's three draws in five games suggest they can be resilient. Our final probability assessment: Cherno More Varna has a 47% chance of winning, the draw is at 33%, and Lokomotiv Sofia has a 20% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from bookmakers show Cherno More Varna as the favorite. The best home win odds are 2.00, the draw is priced at 2.15 to 2.20, and an away win for Lokomotiv Sofia is at 3.45 to 3.50. These betting odds reflect the home advantage and the historical edge Cherno More Varna holds in this fixture. Our Cherno More Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction is a home win, but the low confidence in recent results makes the draw a real possibility. Based on the stats, Cherno More Varna is the more likely winner, but betting tips should consider the draw as a value option.