Ceara CE - Criciuma SC prediction 08/10/2026

On October 8, 2026, Ceara CE faces Criciuma SC in a Serie B match at 19:30. This Ceara CE vs Criciuma SC prediction gives the home side a 42% win probability, with the draw at 30% and Criciuma SC at 28%. The head-to-head record and recent form point to a tight contest, but Ceara CE's home strength makes them the favorite.

Team Form

Ceara CE comes into this match with mixed results: two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five outings. Their most recent game was a 1-0 away win against Avai SC on October 3. Before that, they drew 2-2 at Operario PR and beat Gremio Novorizontino SP 2-1 at home. The only setback was a 2-1 loss at Atletico Goianiense GO on September 9.

Criciuma SC has two wins and three losses in the same period. They won 2-0 at Londrina PR on October 2 and beat Avai SC 3-0 at home on September 27. However, they suffered three straight defeats before that: 2-0 at home to Operario PR, 4-0 at Atletico Goianiense GO, and 2-0 at home to Juventude RS. Away form is a concern, with two wins and three losses in the last five on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record strongly favors Ceara CE. In seven previous meetings, Ceara CE has four wins, three draws, and Criciuma SC has never won. The last encounter was on June 15, 2026, a 1-1 draw at Criciuma SC. The most recent match at Ceara CE's ground was a 1-0 home win on September 2, 2023. Ceara CE also won 2-1 away in May 2023. The overall trend is clear: Ceara CE knows how to handle this opponent.

League Table Positions

Criciuma SC sits 4th in the Serie B standings with 53 points from 31 matches (15 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses). They have scored 33 goals and conceded 27. Ceara CE is outside the top 12, so they are lower in the table. However, home form often overrides league position, and Ceara CE's H2H dominance cannot be ignored.

Win Probability: Ceara CE or Criciuma SC?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Ceara CE 42%, draw 30%, Criciuma SC 28%. The bookmakers' odds (home 2.49, draw 3.13, away 3.27) give an implied probability of about 39% for a home win, but we adjust upward because of Ceara CE's unbeaten H2H record and Criciuma SC's poor away form. Ceara CE is the more likely winner, but a draw is a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Ceara CE win at 2.49, draw at 3.13, and Criciuma SC win at 3.27. Bookmakers see Ceara CE as the favorite, and our analysis supports that. The final Ceara CE vs Criciuma SC prediction is a home win or draw double chance, with a low-scoring game likely given the H2H history (four of the last five meetings had under 2.5 goals).