Radnik Surdulica - Crvena Zvezda prediction 10/09/2026

Our Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda prediction for the SuperLiga match on Sep 10, 2026, at 17:00 points to an away win. Crvena Zvezda is the clear favorite with a 72% win probability, while Radnik Surdulica has a 12% chance and the draw sits at 16%. The game takes place at EFBET Stadion in Surdulica, and all the stats back the visitors as the team most likely to take the three points.

Team Form

Radnik Surdulica comes into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five games show three wins and two losses (W, L, W, W, L). At home, they beat Cukaricki Stankom 3-1, Novi Pazar 1-0, and FK Macva Sabac 2-1, but suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat away at Zeleznicar Pancevo and a 2-1 loss at Vojvodina. The team has scored 9 goals and conceded 10 in the league so far.

Crvena Zvezda's form is much stronger. They have four wins and one draw in their last five domestic matches (W, W, W, D, L), with the only loss coming in a UEFA Champions League Qualification game against Hapoel Be'er Sheva. In the SuperLiga, they beat Partizan Belgrade 2-1, Zemun 2-0, and Cukaricki Stankom 4-0, and drew 0-0 away at Zeleznicar Pancevo. With 18 goals scored and only 2 conceded in 6 league games, their form is dominant.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Crvena Zvezda. In the last 24 meetings, Radnik Surdulica has won just once, with 4 draws and 19 wins for Crvena Zvezda. The most recent clash on Aug 01, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw at this same venue. Before that, Crvena Zvezda won 2-1 away in April 2026, and the teams drew 1-1 in November 2025. The historical stats make it clear who usually dominates this fixture.

League Table Positions

Crvena Zvezda sits at the top of the SuperLiga table with a perfect record: 6 wins from 6 matches, 18 points, and a goal difference of +16 (18 scored, 2 conceded). Radnik Surdulica is in 6th place with 11 points from 7 games, having won 3, drawn 2, and lost 2. At home, Radnik Surdulica is strong - 3 wins and 1 draw from 4 games - but Crvena Zvezda's away record is also perfect, with 1 win from 1 away match so far this season.

Win Probability: Radnik Surdulica or Crvena Zvezda?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, we calculate the win probability as follows: Crvena Zvezda has a 72% chance to win, the draw is at 16%, and Radnik Surdulica has a 12% chance. The bookmakers' odds imply a similar picture - the best available away win odds are around 1.57, which translates to an implied probability above 60% before adjustments. We adjusted for Crvena Zvezda's perfect league start, their dominant goal difference, and the historical H2H dominance (19 wins in 24 games). Radnik Surdulica's solid home form gives them a small chance, but the gap in quality is too big to ignore. The question "who will win" has a clear answer: Crvena Zvezda is the most likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for this SuperLiga match show a wide range. The home win for Radnik Surdulica is priced as high as 13.50, with other bookmakers offering 7.00, 7.30, 8.50, and 9.00. The draw odds sit between 2.62 and 5.50. For an away win, Crvena Zvezda is available at odds between 1.22 and 1.57. These betting tips are based purely on the stats: Crvena Zvezda's form, the head-to-head record, and the league table all point to an away victory. Our match prediction is a win for Crvena Zvezda, with the most likely outcome being a low-scoring game given Radnik Surdulica's tight home defense and Crvena Zvezda's strong backline.