Cyprus - Latvia prediction 05/10/2026

Our Cyprus vs Latvia prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on Oct 5 at 13:00 at GSP Stadium points to a tight contest. Based on recent form and head-to-head stats, Cyprus has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Latvia has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Cyprus comes into this match with a solid run of results. Their last five matches show two wins, two draws, and one loss. They beat Armenia 2-0 at home on Oct 2 and drew 0-0 away against Latvia on Sep 28. A 2-1 loss to Montenegro on Sep 25 was followed by a 2-0 friendly win at Liechtenstein and a 1-1 draw at Slovenia. This form gives them confidence at GSP Stadium.

Latvia's recent form is mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five. They lost 1-2 at home to Montenegro on Oct 2 and played a 0-0 draw against Cyprus on Sep 28. A 2-0 loss at Armenia on Sep 25 was preceded by back-to-back 1-0 wins over Gibraltar in March. Their away form has been inconsistent, which could be a factor in this Cyprus vs Latvia prediction.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Cyprus and Latvia shows two draws and no wins for either side. Their most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw in the UEFA Nations League on Sep 28. Before that, they played a 1-1 draw in a Friendly International on Mar 21, 2024. These results suggest a closely matched pair, which is important for any Cyprus Latvia betting tips.

League Table Positions

In the overall UEFA Nations League standings, neither Cyprus nor Latvia appears in the top 12. The table is led by Montenegro, Switzerland, and Portugal, all on 9 points. The home standings show Sweden, Slovakia, and Austria at the top. The away standings are led by Montenegro and Greece. This indicates both teams are in a similar mid-to-lower tier position, making this match a direct battle for points.

Win Probability: Cyprus or Latvia?

Who will win this match? We calculate the win probability using the available odds and team form. The average bookmaker odds imply a home win probability around 57%, a draw around 28%, and an away win around 15% after removing the margin. However, adjusting for the recent 0-0 head-to-head draw and both teams' inconsistent scoring, we slightly lower Cyprus's edge. Our final Cyprus vs Latvia prediction gives Cyprus a 52% chance, the draw a 28% chance, and Latvia a 20% chance. Cyprus is the favorite, but a draw is a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Cyprus as the clear favorite. The best available odds for a home win are around 1.66, while the draw is priced at 3.94 and an away win for Latvia at 6.26. Other bookmakers offer similar lines, with home odds as low as 1.57. Based on the stats, the most likely match outcome is a narrow win for Cyprus, but the value might be in the draw given the recent H2H results. Our betting tips suggest a low-scoring game, with under 2.5 goals being a solid option.