Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves - Deportivo Merlo Reserves prediction 22/10/2026

On October 22, 2026, Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves faces Deportivo Merlo Reserves in the Primera B Metropolitana Reserve. This Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves vs Deportivo Merlo Reserves prediction points to the home side as the favorite, with a 50% win probability based on recent form, head-to-head data, and bookmaker odds.

Team Form

Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves comes into this match in strong shape. Their last five results show three wins and two draws: a 2-0 home win over Deportivo Merlo Reserves on October 14, a 1-1 away draw against Club Social y Deportivo Camioneros Reserves, a 1-1 home draw with Sportivo Italiano Reserves, a 4-0 away win at San Martin Burzaco Reserves, and a 3-1 home victory over Villa San Carlos Reserves. That is 11 goals scored and only 3 conceded in those five matches.

Deportivo Merlo Reserves has been less consistent. Their last five outings produced one win, three draws, and one loss: a 2-0 away defeat to this same opponent, a 0-0 home draw with Argentino de Merlo Reserves, a 2-0 home win over Deportivo Laferrere Reserves, a 1-1 away draw at Brown de Adrogue Reserves, and a 1-1 home draw against Deportivo Armenio Reserves. They have scored 4 goals and let in 4 in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The only recent meeting between these two sides took place on October 14, 2026, just eight days before this match. Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves won 2-0 at home, controlling the game and keeping a clean sheet. That result gives the home team a clear psychological edge and a 1-0-0 head-to-head advantage.

Win Probability: Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves or Deportivo Merlo Reserves?

After analyzing the odds, form, and H2H record, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves win: 50%
• Draw: 30%
• Deportivo Merlo Reserves win: 20%

The bookmakers' average odds (home 2.10, draw 2.25, away 5.25) imply a 43% chance for a home win, 41% for a draw, and 16% for an away win after removing the margin. We adjusted those numbers upward for the home side because of their excellent recent form (three wins in five) and the dominant 2-0 H2H victory just days ago. Deportivo Merlo Reserves' away form is modest, with only one win in their last five, making an away upset unlikely. Therefore, Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves is the more probable winner, but the draw remains a realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds show Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves as the favorite. One bookmaker lists the home win at 2.10, the draw at 2.25, and the away win at 5.25. Another offers 2.05 for the home side, 2.20 for the draw, and 6.00 for Deportivo Merlo Reserves. These numbers reflect the market's confidence in the home team.

Based on the stats, our Arsenal de Sarandi Reserves vs Deportivo Merlo Reserves prediction is a home win. The combination of strong home form, a recent H2H victory, and the visitors' inconsistent results makes the 1X2 home bet the most appealing option. However, with a 30% draw probability, cautious bettors may also consider the double chance market.