CSKA 1948 Sofia - Dunav Ruse prediction 12/09/2026

The CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Dunav Ruse prediction for the Bulgaria 1st League match on September 12, 2026, at 16:00 points strongly in one direction. CSKA 1948 Sofia are the clear favorite based on form, league table position, and head-to-head record. Our win probability analysis gives CSKA 1948 Sofia a 60% chance, the draw a 25% chance, and Dunav Ruse a 15% chance. Who will win this match? The stats suggest the home team has a big edge.

Team Form

CSKA 1948 Sofia come into this match with mixed recent results: two losses, two wins, and one draw in their last five outings (L, W, L, W, D). Their last match was a 1-0 away defeat at Levski Sofia on Sep 05. Before that they beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 at home and lost 1-0 at Septemvri Sofia. At home, however, they have been much stronger, with a 4-1 win against Cherno More Varna and a 1-1 draw against Panathinaikos in UEFA Conference League Qualification.

Dunav Ruse's recent form is worse: D, L, W, L, L. They drew 2-2 at home with Lokomotiv Sofia on Aug 31, lost 3-1 away at Cherno More Varna, and managed a surprise 2-1 away win at Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Two home defeats (0-2 against FC Arda Kardzhali) and a 2-1 away loss at CSKA Sofia completed their poor run. Their defense has conceded regularly, which is a real worry ahead of this trip.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, in the Bulgarian Cup on September 26, 2019. CSKA 1948 Sofia beat Dunav Ruse 2-1 at home. That gives the home side a 100% win record in this fixture (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses for Dunav Ruse). While that is a single match from several years ago, it still adds a psychological edge for the hosts.

League Table Positions

CSKA 1948 Sofia sit 4th in the 1st League overall table with 16 points from 8 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 15 goals and conceding 8. At home, their record is perfect: 4 wins from 4 games, 10 goals scored and only 3 conceded, which gives them the 3rd-best home record in the league.

Dunav Ruse are not even in the top 12 shown in the standings, which suggests they are in the lower part of the table. Their away form is reflected in the available data only indirectly, but CSKA 1948 Sofia's away record (5th in the away standings with 4 points from 4 games) is not as strong as their home form. Still, the gap between the two sides is big, and playing at home gives CSKA 1948 Sofia a major advantage.

Win Probability: CSKA 1948 Sofia or Dunav Ruse?

Based on all available data, CSKA 1948 Sofia have a 60% win probability, the draw sits at 25%, and Dunav Ruse hold just a 15% chance. This calculation starts from the bookmaker odds: the best home win odds of 1.32 imply around a 75% raw probability, but after removing the typical margin and adjusting for real-world factors (Dunav Ruse's poor form, the perfect home record of CSKA 1948 Sofia, and the 2-1 H2H win), a 60% fair probability emerges. The draw gets a boost because CSKA 1948 Sofia have drawn one of their last five, but Dunav Ruse's low chance reflects their leaky defense and low league position. The conclusion: CSKA 1948 Sofia are far more likely to win, but a draw is the second most probable outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very one-sided affair. The pre-match 1X2 odds available show a home win for CSKA 1948 Sofia priced as low as 1.32 or 1.33. The draw is offered around 2.50 to 2.58, and an away win for Dunav Ruse at a high 6.30 to 6.50. Those odds underline the gulf between the teams. Our CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Dunav Ruse prediction, based on the stats and probabilities, is a home win. The 1.32 odds do not offer huge value, but the probability says CSKA 1948 Sofia will get the three points. If you are looking for betting tips, the home win is the safest pick, while the over on total goals could also be considered, given the 15 goals CSKA 1948 Sofia have scored in 8 league matches.