Envigado FC - Orsomarso prediction 01/10/2026

The Envigado FC vs Orsomarso prediction for October 1, 2026, points to a home win in this Primera B clash. Envigado FC enters the match as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability, while Orsomarso faces an uphill battle at Estadio Polideportivo Sur.

Team Form

Envigado FC comes into this match with a mixed but solid recent record. In their last five games, they have one win, three draws, and one loss. Their most recent result was a convincing 3-0 home victory against Atletico FC Cali on September 27. Before that, they drew 0-0 away to Real Cartagena, 1-1 at home against Leones FC, and 2-2 away to Boca Juniors de Cali. The only defeat was a 0-1 home loss to Union Magdalena. Overall, Envigado FC has been hard to beat, especially at home.

Orsomarso's form is much weaker. In their last five matches, they have one win, one draw, and three losses. They lost three consecutive home games - 0-2 against Atletico FC Cali, 0-2 against Tigres FC, and 0-1 against Real Cartagena - before finally winning 2-0 at home against Real Soacha Cundinamarca FC on August 24. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 away draw at Real Santander. Orsomarso has struggled to score and has been vulnerable at the back.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Envigado FC. The two teams have met four times, and Envigado FC has won all four matches. There have been no draws and no wins for Orsomarso. The most recent meeting was on March 1, 2026, in Primera B, where Envigado FC won 1-0 away. Earlier cup encounters also ended 1-0 to Envigado FC, including a home win on March 5, 2024. This perfect H2H record gives Envigado FC a huge psychological edge.

League Table Positions

The Primera B standings are not yet available for the current season, as no league matches have been played. Both teams will be eager to start the campaign on a positive note and climb the table early.

Win Probability: Envigado FC or Orsomarso?

Based on the available data, Envigado FC has a 60% chance of winning this match. The draw is at 25%, and Orsomarso has a 15% chance. These probabilities are calculated from the bookmaker odds (1.57 home, 3.50 draw, 5.75 away), adjusted for Envigado FC's dominant head-to-head record, better recent form, and home advantage. The odds alone imply a home win probability of around 58%, but the perfect H2H and Orsomarso's poor form push that number slightly higher. The conclusion is clear: Envigado FC is the team most likely to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 odds for this Primera B fixture are: Envigado FC 1.57, draw 3.50, Orsomarso 5.75. Bookmakers see Envigado FC as the strong favorite, and the stats back that up. Based on the form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the Envigado FC vs Orsomarso prediction is a home win. Envigado FC should have enough quality to secure all three points.