Ethiopia Bunna - Negelle Arsi prediction 21/10/2026

Our Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction for the Premier League match on October 21, 2026, points to a home win. Ethiopia Bunna has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Negelle Arsi has an 18% chance. The match kicks off at 09:00 local time.

Team Form

Ethiopia Bunna come into this match with a mixed record in their last five games: W, L, D, W, D. Their most recent result was a 2-1 away win against Saint George SC on October 17. Before that, they lost 0-1 at home to Sheger Ketema. They have scored 5 goals in these five matches and kept two clean sheets.

Negelle Arsi's last five results are D, D, L, W, D. They drew 0-0 away to Ethio Electric on October 16 and 1-1 away to Saint George SC on October 10. Their only win in this run was a 2-0 home victory over Ethiopia Nigd Bank back in June. They have struggled to score consistently, finding the net just 3 times in their last five outings.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Ethiopia Bunna. In their two previous meetings, Ethiopia Bunna have won both, with Negelle Arsi yet to register a win or even a draw. The most recent clash was on February 26, 2026, when Ethiopia Bunna won 1-0 away. The earlier match on October 23, 2025, ended 2-1 to Ethiopia Bunna at home. The total goal count across these two games is 4, with Ethiopia Bunna scoring 3 and Negelle Arsi scoring 1.

League Table Positions

In the overall Premier League standings, Ethiopia Bunna sit 6th with 3 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 loss). They have scored 2 and conceded 2. Negelle Arsi are 10th with 2 points from 2 draws, scoring 1 and conceding 1. The home and away splits are revealing: Ethiopia Bunna have a perfect away record this season with 1 win from 1 game, while Negelle Arsi have drawn both of their away matches. This suggests Ethiopia Bunna can perform well on the road, but they are the home side here, where they lost their only game so far.

Win Probability: Ethiopia Bunna or Negelle Arsi?

Based on the available odds, team form, and head-to-head record, we calculate the win probability as follows: Ethiopia Bunna 52%, draw 30%, Negelle Arsi 18%. The odds from bookmakers show Ethiopia Bunna as the favorite, with the lowest average home win odds around 2.10 after removing the margin. Their 100% head-to-head win record and slightly better recent form give them a clear edge. Negelle Arsi's three draws in five games show they are hard to beat, but their lack of wins against Ethiopia Bunna lowers their chances. The home advantage for Ethiopia Bunna also supports the probability of a home win, even though their last home match was a loss.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction. The 1X2 market shows home win odds ranging from 2.45 to 2.50, draw odds from 1.80 to 1.83, and away win odds from 3.70 to 3.75. One outlier bookmaker has very low odds across all outcomes, which is likely an error. Based on the stats, the best betting tip is a home win for Ethiopia Bunna. The head-to-head dominance and the calculated 52% win probability make this the most likely outcome. A draw is the second most probable result, given Negelle Arsi's recent run of stalemates.