FK Sumqayit - Qabala prediction 10/10/2026

FK Sumqayit vs Qabala prediction for the Premyer Liqa match on October 10, 2026. The game kicks off at 12:30 local time. Based on head-to-head stats and recent form, Qabala enters as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while FK Sumqayit has a 32% chance and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

FK Sumqayit are struggling for wins. Their last five matches show three draws and two losses (D, D, L, L, D). They have not won any of their five league games this season, sitting with 2 points from 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. At home, they have yet to play a league match according to the standings, but overall they have scored 4 goals and conceded 8.

Qabala's recent form is also mixed, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five (L, L, W, D, L). In the league, they have 4 points from 6 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses), scoring only 2 goals and conceding 7. Their away form shows 0 wins in the standings data available.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between FK Sumqayit and Qabala spans 45 matches. Qabala leads with 20 wins, FK Sumqayit has 8, and 17 matches ended in a draw. The most recent meeting was on April 19, 2026, where FK Sumqayit won 1-0 at home. Before that, a 0-0 draw on February 20, 2026, and a 2-0 away win for FK Sumqayit on November 7, 2025. FK Sumqayit has won the last two encounters without conceding a goal.

League Table Positions

In the Premyer Liqa overall standings, Qabala is 8th with 4 points from 6 games. FK Sumqayit is 11th with 2 points from 5 games. The gap is small, but both teams are near the bottom. Qabala's home record is slightly better (7th with 4 points from 4 home games), while FK Sumqayit's away record shows 1 point from 2 away games (8th in the away table).

Win Probability: FK Sumqayit or Qabala?

Who will win FK Sumqayit vs Qabala? We calculate the win probability based on odds, form, and head-to-head data. The bookmaker odds average implies a tight contest. After removing the margin, the base probabilities from the best available odds (home 2.38, draw 3.00, away 2.80) are approximately: FK Sumqayit 39%, draw 31%, Qabala 30%. However, adjusting for FK Sumqayit's poor overall form (0 wins in 5) and Qabala's stronger historical H2H record (20 wins to 8), we shift the balance. Our final FK Sumqayit vs Qabala prediction probabilities are: FK Sumqayit 32%, draw 30%, Qabala 38%. Qabala has a slight edge, but the draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The odds for FK Sumqayit vs Qabala from bookmakers show a range: a home win is priced between 2.38 and 3.00, a draw between 1.95 and 3.00, and an away win between 2.80 and 3.60. The variation suggests uncertainty in the market. Based on the stats, Qabala looks the more likely winner, but FK Sumqayit's recent head-to-head results (two straight wins) cannot be ignored. Our betting tip is to consider the draw or a narrow Qabala win. The match outcome chances point to a low-scoring affair, as both teams have struggled for goals this season.