Lietava Jonava - FK Tauras Taurage prediction 18/09/2026

The Lietava Jonava vs FK Tauras Taurage prediction for the 1 Lyga match on September 18, 2026, at 16:00 points to an away win. Based on the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, FK Tauras Taurage has a 48% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 28%, and a Lietava Jonava victory has a 24% probability.

Team Form

Lietava Jonava comes into this match with a poor run of results. Their last five games show one win, one draw, and three losses (L, D, W, L, L). The most recent was a 2-0 defeat away to Neptunas Klaipeda on September 11. Before that, they managed a 0-0 home draw against Dainava Alytus. The team has struggled for consistency, especially at home, where they have lost two of their last three.

FK Tauras Taurage has also been inconsistent, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five (L, L, D, D, W). They are coming off a 1-0 home loss to Vilnius Zalgiris B on September 12. On the road, they have drawn two and lost one of their last three away matches. The win in their recent form came away to Garliava on August 15, a 1-0 result.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favors FK Tauras Taurage. In four previous meetings, FK Tauras Taurage has won three times, and Lietava Jonava has won once, with no draws. The most recent clash was on May 16, 2026, in the 1 Lyga, where FK Tauras Taurage won 2-0 at home. The last time Lietava Jonava hosted FK Tauras Taurage in this competition, on September 20, 2025, the home side won 1-0. Overall, FK Tauras Taurage has outscored Lietava Jonava 7-1 across the four matches.

League Table Positions

In the 1 Lyga standings, FK Tauras Taurage sits 7th with 40 points from 24 matches (12 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses). Lietava Jonava is 10th with 27 points from 24 matches (7 wins, 6 draws, 11 losses). The away team has a clear 13-point advantage. Looking at home and away splits, Lietava Jonava's home record is not among the top eight in the league, while FK Tauras Taurage has collected 15 points from 12 away games, ranking 7th in the away table.

Win Probability: Lietava Jonava or FK Tauras Taurage?

Who will win this match? We calculate the win probability using the bookmaker odds as a base and adjusting for form and H2H. The odds imply a 27% chance for a home win, 26% for a draw, and 47% for an away win after removing the margin. Given FK Tauras Taurage's dominant head-to-head record (3 wins in 4) and higher league position, we slightly raise their chances. Our final probabilities are: Lietava Jonava win 24%, draw 28%, FK Tauras Taurage win 48%. FK Tauras Taurage is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds for this 1 Lyga fixture are: home win 3.35, draw 3.45, away win 1.85. Bookmakers see FK Tauras Taurage as the favorite. Based on the stats, the FK Tauras Taurage win is the most probable match outcome. The head-to-head record and the 13-point gap in the league table support an away victory. Our betting tip is to back FK Tauras Taurage to win, but the odds are short, so combining it with under 2.5 total goals could add value given the low-scoring history between these teams.