Northern Ireland - Georgia prediction 05/10/2026

The Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction points to a home win when these two teams meet on Oct 5 at 15:45 in the UEFA Nations League. Based on recent form, the head-to-head record, and league table positions, Northern Ireland has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Georgia has a 20% chance.

Team Form

Northern Ireland come into this match with strong recent results. Their last five matches show three wins, one draw, and one loss (W-D-W-L-W). In their most recent outing, they beat Ukraine 3-0 away on Oct 2. Before that, they drew 0-0 at home against Hungary on Sep 28. The only defeat in this run was a 3-1 loss away to France in a friendly on Jun 8.

Georgia's form is less convincing. Their last five results are L-D-L-W-D. They lost 1-0 away to Hungary on Oct 2 and drew 0-0 at home with Ukraine on Sep 28. A 2-0 friendly win over Bahrain on Jun 5 is their only victory in this sequence.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is limited to one recent meeting. On Sep 25, 2026, Northern Ireland beat Georgia 1-0 away in the UEFA Nations League. That gives Northern Ireland one win, with no draws or wins for Georgia in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Looking at the overall UEFA Nations League standings, Northern Ireland sit in 12th place with 7 points from 3 matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). They have scored 4 goals and conceded 0. Georgia are not listed in the top 12 of the overall table, which suggests a lower position. In the away standings, Northern Ireland are 6th with 6 points from 2 away wins, scoring 4 and conceding 0.

Win Probability: Northern Ireland or Georgia?

We calculate the win probability for this Northern Ireland vs Georgia match using the available odds, form, and head-to-head data. The bookmaker odds average around 2.65 for a home win, 2.10 for the draw, and 3.38 for an away win. After removing the margin, the implied probabilities are roughly 36% for Northern Ireland, 46% for the draw, and 28% for Georgia. We then adjust these numbers based on Northern Ireland's stronger recent form (3 wins in 5 vs Georgia's 1 win in 5), the 1-0 head-to-head win just 10 days ago, and Northern Ireland's perfect away record in the standings. This shifts the probabilities toward the home side. Our final assessment gives Northern Ireland a 55% chance to win, the draw a 25% chance, and Georgia a 20% chance. Northern Ireland are the clear favorites to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match show Northern Ireland at 2.88, the draw at 1.88, and Georgia at 3.45. Other bookmakers offer similar lines, with the home win as low as 2.40 and the away win as high as 3.60. Based on the stats, Northern Ireland look the most likely winner. Their solid defense - zero goals conceded in the Nations League so far - and the recent head-to-head victory give them a strong edge. Our Northern Ireland vs Georgia prediction is a home win, with under 2.5 total goals a likely outcome given both teams' recent low-scoring matches.