Atletico Astorga - Gernika prediction 24/10/2026

The Atletico Astorga vs Gernika prediction looks at the Segunda Federacion match on Oct 24. Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely outcome with a 43% probability, while Atletico Astorga has a 29% chance and Gernika sits at 28%.

Team Form

Atletico Astorga comes into this game with a recent run of L, W, L, L, W from the last five matches. They lost 4-1 away to Compostela on Oct 17, then beat Ourense CF 4-0 at home on Oct 10, fell 0-1 at home to Amorebieta on Oct 3, lost 0-2 at Sestao River on Sep 26, and won 3-0 at home against Marino Luanco on Sep 19. The form shows two wins and three losses, with the victories coming at home.

Gernika’s last five results read L, D, L, D, W. They lost 1-2 at home to Amorebieta on Oct 17, drew 1-1 away at Deportivo Alaves B on Oct 11, lost 1-2 at home to Sestao River on Oct 4, drew 1-1 away at Coruxo on Sep 27, and won 4-0 at home against UD Llanera on Sep 20. Away from home Gernika has managed two draws and one loss in this spell, showing they can be hard to beat on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head history available between Atletico Astorga and Gernika. This will be the first meeting between the two sides, so we rely only on current form and odds for the win probability analysis.

Win Probability: Atletico Astorga or Gernika?

Based on the odds, team form and the home advantage, we give Atletico Astorga a 29% chance to win the match. The draw is the most probable outcome with 43%, and Gernika has a 28% win probability. The raw odds imply a draw probability of about 43.5% after removing the bookmaker margin, which aligns with the teams' recent results where Gernika often shares the points away and Atletico Astorga is inconsistent. The home factor nudges Atletico Astorga slightly ahead of Gernika for the win-only scenario, but the data strongly points to a stalemate as the main pick.

Odds & Match Prediction

The average 1X2 odds from bookmakers are 3.38 for an Atletico Astorga win, 2.06 for the draw and 2.99 for a Gernika away win. The low draw odds reflect the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair. With no H2H data and both teams showing mixed form, the stats support a draw as the safest betting tip. Our Atletico Astorga vs Gernika prediction therefore backs the draw, while a 1-1 correct score could be a value pick for bettors.