Gil Vicente - Casa Pia prediction 24/08/2026

Who will win Gil Vicente vs Casa Pia? Our prediction for this Primeira Liga match on Aug 24 at 19:15 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos points to a home victory. Based on the latest odds, form, and head-to-head record, Gil Vicente has a 57% chance to win, the draw sits at 23%, and Casa Pia has a 20% probability.

Team Form

Gil Vicente comes into this match in solid shape. Their last five results are D, W, W, L, L. In their most recent Primeira Liga match on Aug 16, they drew 0-0 away at Braga. Before that, they beat Rio Ave 1-0 at home on Aug 09. They also show a 1-0 friendly win over FC Porto in late July. The two losses came back in May against strong sides Sporting Lisbon (0-3) and Arouca (1-3). At home, they have won their last two competitive fixtures.

Casa Pia is struggling. Their last five results read L, L, L, L, W. The win was a 2-0 home result against SCU Torreense back on May 28. Since then, the new season has been rough: a 7-0 away loss at Benfica on Aug 17, a 1-0 loss at Maritimo, and heavy friendly defeats to Leixoes (6-2) and CB Feirense (2-0). They have lost four straight away matches across all competitions.

Head-to-Head Record

Looking at the head-to-head record, Gil Vicente has a clear edge. In seven meetings, Gil Vicente have 4 wins, Casa Pia have 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent match on Apr 27, 2026 saw Gil Vicente win 2-1 at home. The previous encounter in December 2025 ended 1-1 at Casa Pia. Gil Vicente have won two of their three home H2H clashes, keeping a clean sheet in one of those (2-0 in October 2023).

League Table Positions

It is early in the Primeira Liga season. Gil Vicente sit in 8th place with 3 points from 1 match played (1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses). They have scored 1 goal and conceded 0. At home they are ranked 7th in the home standings with a perfect 3 points from 1 game. Casa Pia are yet to appear in the top 12 of the overall table, having lost both their opening matches heavily. Their goal difference after two games stands at 0 scored and 8 conceded. Casa Pia are missing from the away standings top 8, which highlights their poor start.

Win Probability: Gil Vicente or Casa Pia?

We calculate the win probability as follows, based on odds, team form, head-to-head stats, and home advantage. The average bookmaker odds imply a 57% chance for a Gil Vicente win, a 23% chance for a draw, and a 20% chance for a Casa Pia victory. We adjust using form and H2H trends: Gil Vicente's strong home form and Casa Pia's awful away run reinforce the favorite. The conclusion remains: Gil Vicente 57%, draw 23%, Casa Pia 20%. Gil Vicente are the clear favorite to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds for the 1X2 market show Gil Vicente as the favorite. The best home win odds are around 1.75, with some bookmakers offering 1.67. The draw is priced between 2.05 and 3.63, while a Casa Pia win ranges from 4.75 to 6.00. These betting tips reflect the big gap between the sides. Given the form, head-to-head record, and odds, the safest prediction is a Gil Vicente win. For bettors looking at total goals, the data suggests a low-scoring match based on Gil Vicente's tight defense at home. However, always remember that match results are uncertain and these predictions are based only on the available stats.