Glenavon - Loughgall prediction 25/09/2026

Glenavon vs Loughgall prediction for the Championship 1 match on September 25, 2026, at 15:45. Based on the stats, Glenavon is the favorite with a 42% win probability, while Loughgall has a 25% chance and the draw sits at 33%. Bookmakers also see the home side as the more likely winner, but the numbers show a tight contest.

Team Form

Glenavon comes into this match with mixed results. In their last five games, they have one win, one draw, and three losses. Their most recent league outing was a 3-2 defeat away to Dundela on September 5. Before that, they beat Rathfriland Rangers 3-1 at home. The team has scored 18 goals and conceded 12 in the Championship 1 so far, showing they can find the net but also give away chances.

Loughgall's recent form has been built on draws. Their last five matches show one win, three draws, and one loss. They drew 0-0 at home against Armagh City on September 19. A heavy 6-1 home loss to Ballinamallard United on September 5 is a clear warning sign. Away from home, Loughgall has been solid, with two wins, one draw, and one loss in the league this season.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head between Glenavon and Loughgall, Glenavon has 7 wins, Loughgall has 6, and there has been 1 draw. The most recent meeting was on April 5, 2025, when Loughgall won 1-0 away. Looking at the last five clashes, Loughgall has the edge with three wins to Glenavon's two. The H2H record suggests these teams are evenly matched, with neither side dominating consistently.

League Table Positions

Glenavon sits 5th in the Championship 1 table with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 18 goals and conceded 12. At home, they are strong: 3 wins and 1 loss from 4 games, with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded.

Loughgall is 11th with 10 points (2 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses), scoring 11 and conceding 14. On the road, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 5 goals for and 3 against. The table shows Glenavon has a clear advantage in points and home performance, but Loughgall's away record is respectable.

Win Probability: Glenavon or Loughgall?

After analyzing the odds, team form, H2H, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Glenavon has a 42% chance to win, the draw is at 33%, and Loughgall has a 25% chance. The odds from bookmakers give an average implied probability of around 40% for a home win, which we adjusted upward slightly because of Glenavon's better league standing and home advantage. Loughgall's recent away form keeps their chances alive, but the numbers point to a home-favored outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Glenavon win at 2.40, draw at 2.30, and Loughgall win at 3.50. These odds reflect the market's view that Glenavon is the favorite, but the tight draw odds show the bookmakers expect a close game. Our Glenavon vs Loughgall prediction is a home win, but with a high chance of a draw. Based on the stats, betting tips lean toward a low-scoring affair, as both teams have shown defensive solidity in patches. The final prediction: Glenavon to win, but a draw is a real possibility.