Rijeka - Hajduk Split prediction 20/09/2026

The Rijeka vs Hajduk Split prediction for September 20, 2026, points to a tight HNL clash at Stadion Rujevica. Hajduk Split comes into this match as the slight favorite with a 45% win probability, while Rijeka has a 35% chance and the draw sits at 20%. Bookmakers and recent form both back the visitors, but Rijeka's perfect home record makes this a hard one to call.

Team Form

Rijeka's last five results show a mixed run: D, W, D, L, W. They drew 1-1 away at Lokomotiva Zagreb on Sep 12, beat Osijek 4-1 at home, and drew 0-0 at HNK Gorica. A heavy 4-1 home loss to Midtjylland in the UEFA Conference League Qualification was a setback, but they bounced back with a 3-2 home win over Istra 1961. At home in the league, Rijeka has won all three matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 4.

Hajduk Split is in stronger form with W, W, W, D, W in their last five. They beat Vardarac 2-0 away in the Cup, smashed Rudes 4-0 on the road, and won 2-0 at home against Lokomotiva Zagreb. A 2-2 draw at Rakow Czestochowa in Europe and a 4-0 home win over Osijek complete the picture. Away from home in the HNL, Hajduk Split has 2 wins and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 3.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings, Rijeka has 2 wins, Hajduk Split has 1, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent match on Apr 26, 2026, ended 0-0 at Rijeka. Before that, Rijeka won a Cup tie 3-2 at home on Mar 04, 2026. Hajduk Split took a 1-0 home win in the league on Feb 22, 2026. Rijeka's 5-0 home win on Nov 22, 2025, stands out, while the Aug 31, 2025, meeting ended 2-2 at Hajduk Split. The head-to-head record is balanced, with both sides capable of big results at home.

League Table Positions

Hajduk Split tops the HNL table with 13 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). They have scored 15 goals and conceded only 5. Rijeka sits 5th with 10 points from 5 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), scoring 9 and conceding 6. At home, Rijeka is 3rd with a perfect 9 points from 3 matches. Hajduk Split is 1st in the away table with 6 points from 3 games. The gap is small, but Hajduk Split's overall consistency gives them an edge.

Win Probability: Rijeka or Hajduk Split?

Based on the odds, form, and head-to-head stats, the win probability for this match is: Hajduk Split 45%, Rijeka 35%, draw 20%. The odds imply a close contest - the best home win price is 2.10, the draw is 2.18, and an away win is 3.40. After removing the bookmaker margin, the raw probabilities are roughly 44% for a Rijeka win, 42% for the draw, and 29% for Hajduk Split. We adjust these numbers because Hajduk Split's recent form (4 wins in 5) and league position (1st) are stronger than Rijeka's. Rijeka's perfect home record keeps them in the fight, but Hajduk Split's away performances tip the balance. Hajduk Split has a 45% chance to win, making them the more likely winner in our Rijeka vs Hajduk Split prediction.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market are: Rijeka win at 2.10, draw at 2.18, and Hajduk Split win at 3.40. Bookmakers see Rijeka as the narrow favorite, but the draw odds are very close, reflecting how even this matchup is. Our Rijeka vs Hajduk Split prediction leans toward Hajduk Split based on the stats - their form, league standing, and away record give them a slight advantage. A draw is a real possibility given the head-to-head history, but Hajduk Split's 45% win probability makes them the value pick at 3.40 odds.