Hamburger SV II - FC St. Pauli II prediction 16/09/2026

The Hamburger SV II vs FC St. Pauli II prediction for the Regionalliga match on September 16, 2026, at 10:00 points to a home advantage. Based on the odds, head-to-head record and recent form, Hamburger SV II has a 45% chance to win, the draw sits at 30%, and FC St. Pauli II has a 25% chance. This betting preview covers team form, H2H stats, league table context and the best odds for your match prediction.

Team Form

Hamburger SV II comes into this game with a mixed run: L, W, L, W, L in the last five matches. The most recent result was a heavy 4-0 defeat away to ETSV Weiche Flensburg on Sep 11. Before that, they beat Jeddeloh 3-1 away, but at home they lost 0-2 to Eintracht Norderstedt and 1-4 to Drochtersen / Assel. The only home win in that stretch was a 3-1 victory at VfB Lubeck. That inconsistent home form is a concern for the Hamburger SV II vs FC St. Pauli II prediction.

FC St. Pauli II shows a similar pattern: W, D, L, W, L. They are coming off a strong 5-0 home win against Eintracht Norderstedt on Sep 13. Before that, a 2-2 draw at home with Phonix Lubeck and a 3-2 away loss to FSV Schoningen 2011. Their away form has been shaky, with defeats at Jeddeloh (2-0) and FSV Schoningen, though they did beat Werder Bremen II 2-1 on the road in mid-August. That inconsistency makes the who will win question harder to answer purely on form.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Hamburger SV II. In 17 previous meetings, Hamburger SV II has 8 wins, 7 draws and FC St. Pauli II only 2 wins. Looking at the last five encounters, the dominance is even clearer: Hamburger SV II won four and drew one. The most recent match, on May 10, 2026, ended 1-1 at FC St. Pauli II. Before that, Hamburger SV II won 4-1 at home in December 2025 and 4-2 at home in April 2025. The last FC St. Pauli II win in this fixture was back in 2023? Actually, the last away win for St. Pauli II was not in the last five – they lost all recent meetings. This H2H trend is a key factor in the win probability calculation.

League Table Positions

No current league table data is provided in the source, so we focus on the available stats. Both teams compete in the Regionalliga, Germany's fourth tier. The historical H2H and recent results suggest Hamburger SV II often finishes higher in this matchup, but without exact points or positions we rely on the other indicators for the match prediction.

Win Probability: Hamburger SV II or FC St. Pauli II?

After analyzing the odds, form and head-to-head record, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match: Hamburger SV II win – 45%, draw – 30%, FC St. Pauli II win – 25%. The bookmakers' average odds (home 2.20, draw 2.49, away 2.96) imply a 38% home win chance after removing the margin, but the massive H2H advantage and home field push that number higher. Hamburger SV II has won 8 of 17 H2H meetings and is unbeaten in the last five. However, their recent home defeats keep the probability below 50%. The draw gets a solid 30% because 7 of 17 H2H games ended level, and both teams have shown inconsistency. FC St. Pauli II's 25% reflects their poor H2H record and away form struggles. So, who will win? The data says Hamburger SV II is the more likely winner, but the draw is a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds from the JSON data show Hamburger SV II at 2.20 to win, the draw at 2.40 with one bookmaker, and FC St. Pauli II as high as 3.10 to win away. These odds confirm the home team as the favorite. Our Hamburger SV II vs FC St. Pauli II prediction is a home win, but with caution – the 45% probability means it is not a banker. For betting tips, the draw at around 2.50 offers value given the H2H draw rate, and under 2.5 goals could be an option considering both teams' recent scoring patterns. Always check the latest odds before placing a bet.