Ironi Modiin - Hapoel Afula prediction 09/10/2026

Our Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula prediction for the Liga Leumit match on October 9, 2026, points to Hapoel Afula as the favorite with a 45% win probability. The match kicks off at 10:00, and the bookmakers' odds and recent form give the visitors a clear edge. Read on for full betting tips, head-to-head analysis, and the latest team form.

Team Form

Ironi Modiin come into this match with a shaky run of results. Their last five games show one win, one draw, and three losses (W, L, L, L, D). A 2-1 away win at Maccabi Ahi Nazareth on Oct 1 was a positive, but heavy home defeats to SC Ashdod (1-3) and Bnei Yehuda Tel Aviv (2-4) exposed defensive problems. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 15 in 8 league matches.

Hapoel Afula's recent form is more balanced with one win, two draws, and two losses (D, W, D, L, L). A strong 3-0 away win at Hapoel Acre FC on Sep 24 stands out. They also drew 2-2 at home with Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion on Oct 1. With 16 goals scored and 12 conceded in 8 games, they look more solid at both ends of the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two teams is limited to three meetings, all in Liga Leumit. Ironi Modiin have one win, and there have been two draws. Hapoel Afula are yet to beat Ironi Modiin. The most recent clash on Apr 24, 2026, ended 0-0. Before that, another 0-0 draw on Apr 6, 2026. The only victory came for Ironi Modiin on Nov 10, 2025, a 3-1 home win. The H2H stats suggest tight, low-scoring affairs are common when these sides meet.

League Table Positions

In the overall Liga Leumit standings, Hapoel Afula sit 6th with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Ironi Modiin are 11th with 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses). The gap is 6 points. At home, Ironi Modiin rank 6th in the away table with 7 points from 4 away games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Hapoel Afula's away record shows 6 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 loss), placing them 8th in the away standings. The table clearly favors Hapoel Afula based on overall performance.

Win Probability: Ironi Modiin or Hapoel Afula?

Based on the available odds, form, and league positions, we calculate the win probability for this match as follows: Ironi Modiin win - 30%, draw - 25%, Hapoel Afula win - 45%. The odds imply a tight contest, with the draw priced as low as 2.15 by some bookmakers. However, Hapoel Afula's superior league position and more consistent recent performances tilt the probability in their favor. Ironi Modiin's home advantage is weakened by their poor home form, having lost three of their last four at home. The head-to-head history of two 0-0 draws also supports a significant chance of a stalemate, but Hapoel Afula are the more likely winner if there is one.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula match show a very open market. The best available home win odds are around 2.80, the draw is as low as 2.15, and an away win can be found at 2.75. The tight odds reflect the competitive nature of the league. Our Ironi Modiin vs Hapoel Afula prediction is an away win for Hapoel Afula, based on their stronger overall stats and better form. A draw is a very realistic outcome, but the value may lie with the visitors. For betting tips, the under 2.5 goals market could be worth a look given the history of low-scoring H2H matches.