Hassania Agadir - Maghreb AS de Fes prediction 03/10/2026

The Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb AS de Fes prediction for the Botola match on Oct 3, 2026, at 13:00, points to Maghreb AS de Fes as the favorite with a 38% win probability. The draw is the most likely result at 40%, while Hassania Agadir has a 22% chance. This betting tip is based on recent form, head-to-head stats, and bookmaker odds.

Team Form

Hassania Agadir comes into this match with mixed results: one win, three draws, and one loss in the last five games. Their most recent outing was a 3-2 away win against Kawkab Marrakech on Sep 27. Before that, they drew 1-1 at home with Kawkab Marrakech, lost 2-0 away to Raja Casablanca, and had two more draws – 1-1 at home vs Renaissance Zemamra and 0-0 away vs CODM Meknes. The team struggles to turn draws into wins, which is a concern.

Maghreb AS de Fes, on the other hand, shows stronger form: three wins and two draws in their last five matches. They beat Renaissance Zemamra 2-1 at home on Sep 27, drew 0-0 away with Rahimo in the CAF Champions League, smashed Rahimo 4-1 at home, and also won 2-0 at home against Olympique Dcheira. Their only recent away draw was 0-0 at Kawkab Marrakech. The away team is clearly in better shape and scoring goals consistently.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last seven meetings between these two sides, Maghreb AS de Fes has the edge with 3 wins, while Hassania Agadir has 2 wins and 2 draws. The most recent clash on Apr 29, 2026, ended 4-0 for Maghreb AS de Fes at home. Before that, on Sep 20, 2025, Maghreb AS de Fes won 2-0 away at Hassania Agadir. The trend is clear: Maghreb AS de Fes has won the last two encounters without conceding a goal. Earlier, they drew 2-2 at Hassania Agadir in Jan 2025, and Hassania Agadir won 2-1 at home in Dec 2023. The H2H record strongly favors the away team in recent times.

League Table Positions

Both teams have started the new Botola season with a win. Hassania Agadir sits 4th with 3 points and a +1 goal difference after their 3-2 away victory. Maghreb AS de Fes is 5th, also with 3 points and a +1 goal difference from a 2-1 home win. The table is very tight early on, so this match could push either side higher. Home and away splits are not yet meaningful, as Hassania Agadir has not played at home this season and Maghreb AS de Fes has not played away.

Win Probability: Hassania Agadir or Maghreb AS de Fes?

Based on the odds, form, and H2H data, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Hassania Agadir win: 22%
• Draw: 40%
• Maghreb AS de Fes win: 38%

The draw is the single most likely outcome, but Maghreb AS de Fes has a notably higher chance to win than Hassania Agadir. The away team's superior recent form and dominant H2H record tip the scales in their favor. Even though Hassania Agadir plays at home, their inability to secure wins lately makes them the underdog. The probability model starts from the inverse of the bookmaker odds, normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusts for the teams' last five results and head-to-head trends.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following 1X2 odds for this Botola clash: home win around 3.25 to 4.15, draw between 1.92 and 2.90, and away win from 2.15 to 2.62. The lowest draw odds (1.92) confirm that the market sees a stalemate as a very real possibility. The away win odds are shorter than the home win odds, which aligns with Maghreb AS de Fes being the favorite.

Our Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb AS de Fes prediction: based on the stats, the most likely result is a draw, but Maghreb AS de Fes has a strong chance to take all three points. A bet on the away win or draw double chance could be a smart move. Always check the latest team news before placing any bet.