HNK Gorica - NK Varazdin prediction 14/09/2026

This HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin prediction looks ahead to the HNL match on Sep 14 at 16:00. Based on the stats, NK Varazdin is the favorite with a 45% win probability, while HNK Gorica has a 30% chance and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

HNK Gorica are struggling for results. In their last five matches they have recorded three losses and two draws. They failed to score in three of those games, including a 1-0 defeat at Dinamo Zagreb and a 2-0 loss at NK Slaven Belupo. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 cup draw at Uskok Klis.

NK Varazdin come into this match in much better shape. Their last five games show three wins, one draw, and one loss. They beat Rudes 2-0 and Rijeka 2-0 at home, and won 4-0 at Zagora in the cup. Their only recent defeat was a 3-1 loss away to Dinamo Zagreb.

Head-to-Head Record

The last three meetings between these teams have been evenly split. NK Varazdin won 2-1 at home in the HNL in January 2026. Before that, HNK Gorica won 3-1 away in the Cup in March 2026. The most recent league clash in April 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw. Overall, across the three matches, each team has one win and there has been one draw.

League Table Positions

The HNL standings show a big gap between the two sides. NK Varazdin are 3rd with 13 points from 6 games, having scored 11 goals and conceded only 5. HNK Gorica are bottom in 10th place with just 1 point from 6 matches, scoring only 2 goals and conceding 10. NK Varazdin's away record is 3rd best in the league, while HNK Gorica have yet to win at home or away.

Win Probability: HNK Gorica or NK Varazdin?

We calculate the win probability based on the odds, form, and league table. The bookmaker odds imply a tight game, but the form and standings point clearly to NK Varazdin. After normalizing the odds to remove the margin, the base chances are around 28% for a HNK Gorica win, 43% for a draw, and 29% for an NK Varazdin win. Adjusting for NK Varazdin's strong 3rd-place position and HNK Gorica's poor run of five games without a win, the draw probability drops and the away win rises. Our final numbers: HNK Gorica has a 30% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and NK Varazdin has a 45% chance. The question of who will win this match points to NK Varazdin as the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match 1X2 odds are: HNK Gorica home win at 3.40, the draw at 2.20, and NK Varazdin away win at 2.75. Bookmakers see the draw as the most likely single result, but the away win odds are not far behind. Based on the stats, NK Varazdin's form and league position make them the smart pick for this HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin prediction. A low-scoring match is likely, given HNK Gorica's struggles in front of goal.