Boyaca Chico - EDP Independiente Medellin prediction 12/09/2026

The Boyaca Chico vs EDP Independiente Medellin prediction for the Primera A match on Sep 12 at 23:10 is here. Based on the stats, EDP Independiente Medellin is the favorite with a 52% win probability, while Boyaca Chico has a 24% chance and the draw sits at 24%. The game takes place at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja.

Team Form

Boyaca Chico comes into this match with a mixed run of results: W, D, D, L, L in their last five. Their most recent outing was a solid 2-0 home win against Once Caldas on Sep 05. Before that, they drew 2-2 away at Rionegro Aguilas and 0-0 at home to Fortaleza Zipaquira. Losses to Jaguares de Cordoba and Independiente Santa Fe show some inconsistency.

EDP Independiente Medellin is in stronger form with a W, W, W, L, D sequence. They beat Deportivo Pasto 4-1 away in the Cup on Sep 10, won 3-0 at Deportivo Pereira, and edged Llaneros FC 2-1 at home. A 1-0 home loss to Cucuta Deportivo and a 0-0 draw at Inter Bogota FC are the only recent blemishes.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors EDP Independiente Medellin. In 18 meetings, the away side has 11 wins, Boyaca Chico has 5, and there have been 2 draws. The last five clashes tell a clear story: EDP Independiente Medellin won 2-0 at home in Apr 2026, but Boyaca Chico won 2-0 at home in Jul 2025. Medellin also won 3-0 at home in Feb 2025 and recorded 3-0 and 4-1 victories in the Cup in Oct 2024.

League Table Positions

In the overall Primera A standings, EDP Independiente Medellin sits 11th with 26 points from 19 matches (7 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses). Boyaca Chico is not in the top 12 shown, indicating a lower position. Looking at away form, Medellin ranks 7th with 12 points from 9 games (3 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses). The home table does not feature Boyaca Chico in the top 8, which suggests they have struggled at Estadio La Independencia this season.

Win Probability: Boyaca Chico or EDP Independiente Medellin?

Who will win this match? Our win probability calculation gives EDP Independiente Medellin a 52% chance, the draw a 24% chance, and Boyaca Chico a 24% chance. This is based on the available odds, recent form, and the lopsided H2H record. The bookmakers' average odds imply a clear away advantage, and Medellin's three-game winning streak on the road adds weight. Boyaca Chico's home struggles and poor H2H history make an upset less likely, though their last home H2H win offers a glimmer of hope.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 betting odds for Boyaca Chico vs EDP Independiente Medellin show variation across bookmakers. Home win odds range from 3.80 to 4.50, the draw is priced between 2.05 and 3.50, and an away win sits between 1.85 and 2.40. The lowest away price of 1.85 confirms that bookmakers see EDP Independiente Medellin as the favorite. Our Boyaca Chico vs EDP Independiente Medellin prediction: based on the stats, an away win is the most probable outcome, but the draw odds are short enough to suggest caution. Betting tips point to Medellin to win or draw as a safer angle.