Jagiellonia Bialystok II - Troszyn prediction 14/10/2026

On October 14, 2026, Jagiellonia Bialystok II faces Troszyn in a III Liga match. Our Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Troszyn prediction gives the home side a 45% win probability, making them the slight favorite. The draw sits at 30%, and Troszyn has a 25% chance to win away.

Team Form

Jagiellonia Bialystok II comes into this match with mixed results. In their last five games, they recorded two wins, two losses, and one draw. The most recent was a 2-2 away draw at Zabkovia Zabki on Oct 10. Before that, they lost 2-1 at Wisla Plock II and suffered a 2-3 home defeat to LKS Lodz II. A high-scoring 7-4 win over Mlawianka Mlawa and a 2-1 away win at LKS Lomza round out the form card. The team has scored 12 goals in this stretch, but also conceded 11.

Troszyn's form is also patchy. Their last five results: one win, two draws, two losses. They lost 2-1 away to Wisla Plock II on Oct 10, drew 1-1 at home with LKS Lodz II, lost 4-1 at Mlawianka Mlawa, drew 1-1 at home against LKS Lomza, and won 2-0 away at Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki. On the road, Troszyn has won only once in the last five trips.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met twice before, and the head-to-head record favors Troszyn. In the most recent clash on May 17, 2026, Troszyn won 1-0 away at Jagiellonia Bialystok II. The earlier fixture, on Oct 31, 2025, ended 1-1 at Troszyn. So overall, Troszyn has one win and one draw, while Jagiellonia has yet to beat them.

League Table Positions

In the III Liga table, Jagiellonia Bialystok II sits 9th with 16 points from 11 matches (4 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). Their home record shows 8 points from 6 away games (2W, 2D, 2L), ranking them 8th in the away standings. Troszyn is not listed in the top 12 of the overall table, indicating a lower position. The gap in points and recent form gives Jagiellonia a slight edge, but consistency has been a problem for both sides.

Win Probability: Jagiellonia Bialystok II or Troszyn?

Based on odds, form, head-to-head, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok II 45%, draw 30%, Troszyn 25%. Bookmakers initially implied around a 50% home win, but we adjusted that down due to the poor H2H record (no wins against Troszyn) and the team's leaky defense. Troszyn's away form is weak, but they have beaten this opponent before. So a draw is a real possibility, and the home favorite is not as clear as the odds suggest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varied odds for this III Liga match. The home win is priced as low as 1.44 and as high as 2.00 across different sites. The draw odds range from 2.50 to 4.33, while an away win pays between 4.20 and 5.50. The best available odds for Jagiellonia Bialystok II are around 2.00. Based on the stats, our Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Troszyn betting tip would lean toward a draw or a narrow home win. The prediction is cautious - Jagiellonia Bialystok II has the edge, but Troszyn has the H2H motivation to take at least a point.