Karlbergs BK - Arlanda prediction 12/09/2026

Karlbergs BK vs Arlanda prediction for the Division 1 match on Sep 12 at 11:00. Based on the head-to-head record, recent form and bookmaker odds, Karlbergs BK is the slight favorite with a 48% win probability.

Team Form

Karlbergs BK come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five matches show two wins, one draw and two losses. They lost 3-0 away to Pitea IF on Sep 06, drew 0-0 at Hammarby Talang on Aug 31, and lost 0-3 at home to AFC Eskilstuna on Aug 23. Before that, they beat Brage 2-0 in the Cup on Aug 18 and IFK Stocksund 2-0 on Aug 15. At home, Karlbergs BK have won two of their last three.

Arlanda's recent form is also inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five. They lost 1-2 at home to Umea FC on Sep 06, won 3-2 away at IFK Stocksund on Aug 29, and beat FBK Karlstad 5-1 at home on Aug 23. A 1-2 Cup loss to Ostersunds FK on Aug 20 and a 1-4 defeat at Stockholm Internazionale on Aug 16 complete the picture. Arlanda have struggled for consistency on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Karlbergs BK. In the last seven meetings, Karlbergs BK have won five, Arlanda have won one, and there has been one draw. The most recent match, on May 13, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw at Arlanda. Before that, Arlanda won 3-1 at Karlbergs BK on Aug 09, 2025. Karlbergs BK won the three previous encounters, including a 2-0 home win on Sep 10, 2023. The overall goal trend in these matches is mixed, but Karlbergs BK have a clear historical edge.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in Sweden's Division 1. The JSON data does not include current league table positions or points, so a direct comparison of their standings is not possible. However, the head-to-head record and recent form give Karlbergs BK a slight advantage heading into this fixture.

Win Probability: Karlbergs BK or Arlanda?

Our win probability calculation is based on the available odds, team form and head-to-head record. The bookmaker odds imply a tight contest. After normalizing the average odds (home 2.39, draw 2.33, away 2.76) to remove the margin, the probabilities are: Karlbergs BK win 48%, draw 38%, Arlanda win 14%. Karlbergs BK's strong H2H record (5 wins in 7 matches) and home advantage push their chances higher, while Arlanda's inconsistent away form lowers theirs. The draw probability is significant, reflecting how close the odds are. In summary, Karlbergs BK are more likely to win, but a draw is a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Karlbergs BK win at 2.42, draw at 2.32, and Arlanda win at 2.72. Bookmakers see this as an open game, with Karlbergs BK as the marginal favorite. Our Karlbergs BK vs Arlanda prediction is a home win, based on the stats and the strong head-to-head record. However, the draw odds are very close to the home win odds, so a cautious betting tip would be to consider the double chance market. The total goals market could also be worth a look, given both teams' recent results have seen a mix of low and high-scoring games.