Moss - Kongsvinger prediction 05/10/2026

Our Moss vs Kongsvinger prediction for the 1 Division match on Oct 5 at 14:00 is that Kongsvinger is the favorite. Based on the stats, Kongsvinger has a 52% win probability, a draw sits at 24%, and Moss has a 24% chance. The match takes place in Norway, and referee A. Bodding will be in charge.

Team Form

Moss comes into this game with mixed recent results. Their last five matches show two wins, two losses, and one draw (W, L, W, L, D). At home, they lost 1-4 to Haugesund and 1-2 to Strommen, but they did beat Sandnes Ulf 2-1 away and Stabaek 3-2 away. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw at Grorud in the Cup.

Kongsvinger is in much stronger form. They have three wins and two draws in their last five (W, D, W, W, D). They scored a huge 9-1 home win over Raufoss and a 5-1 home win over Hodd. Away from home, they drew 1-1 at Egersund and won 3-2 at Eidsvold Turn in the Cup. Their attack looks very sharp, with 68 goals in 23 league games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record strongly favors Kongsvinger. In the last 11 meetings, Kongsvinger has 8 wins, Moss has 3 wins, and there have been 0 draws. The most recent match was on Apr 18, 2026, when Kongsvinger beat Moss 2-1 at home. Before that, Kongsvinger won 4-2 at Moss on Oct 18, 2025, and crushed Moss 6-0 at home on Apr 21, 2025. Moss did win 3-2 at home on Dec 1, 2024, but overall, Kongsvinger has dominated this fixture.

League Table Positions

Kongsvinger sits 3rd in the 1 Division table with 50 points from 23 matches (15 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 68 goals and conceded 35. Moss is not in the top 8 of the overall standings, but they appear in the away standings in 8th place with 15 points from 12 away games (5 wins, 0 draws, 7 losses). The gap in quality is clear - Kongsvinger is fighting for promotion, while Moss is a mid-table side.

Win Probability: Moss or Kongsvinger?

Who will win Moss vs Kongsvinger? We calculate the win probability as follows: Kongsvinger 52%, draw 24%, Moss 24%. This is based on the bookmaker odds, where Kongsvinger is priced around 1.91 to 1.98, implying a roughly 50% chance. We adjusted slightly upward for Kongsvinger because of their superior form, much higher league position, and dominant head-to-head record (8 wins in 11). Moss gets a 24% chance mainly due to home advantage, but their inconsistent form and poor H2H record limit their chances. The draw probability is 24%, reflecting Kongsvinger's two recent draws and the fact that away games can be tight.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this match are: Moss home win at 3.94, the draw at 3.05, and Kongsvinger away win at 1.77. Other bookmakers have Kongsvinger as short as 1.60, which shows strong confidence in the away side. Our Moss vs Kongsvinger prediction is an away win. Kongsvinger's high-scoring attack (68 goals in 23 games) should be too much for a Moss defense that has conceded 28 goals in 12 away games. Based on the stats, a 2-1 or 3-1 win for Kongsvinger looks likely.