Neptunas Klaipeda - Lietava Jonava prediction 11/09/2026

Our Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava prediction for the 1 Lyga match on Sep 11 at 14:30 points to a home win. Neptunas Klaipeda enters this game as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while the draw sits at 25% and an away win for Lietava Jonava is at 20%. The odds, head-to-head record, and league table positions all back the home side.

Team Form

Neptunas Klaipeda comes into this match with three wins in their last five games (W, L, L, W, W). Their most recent result was a solid 3-1 home victory against Atmosfera Mazeikiai on Aug 29. Before that, they lost 2-0 away to BFA Vilnius and suffered a heavy 0-4 home defeat to FK Babrungas Plunge. They bounced back with away wins against FK Tauras Taurage (0-2) and Garliava (0-1).

Lietava Jonava's recent form is weaker, with just one win in their last five (D, W, L, L, L). They played a 0-0 home draw against Dainava Alytus on Sep 04. Before that, they won 1-2 away at FK Transinvest B, but lost three straight: 0-1 at home to FA Siauliai B, 2-1 away to FK Kauno Zalgiris 2, and 1-2 at home to Ekranas Panevezio.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, Neptunas Klaipeda has won four times and Lietava Jonava three times, with no draws. The most recent clash was on May 08, 2026, when Neptunas Klaipeda won 0-1 away. Before that, on Aug 30, 2025, Neptunas won 0-2 away. Lietava Jonava's last win in this fixture was on May 03, 2025, a 0-2 away victory. The head-to-head record shows a slight edge for the home team, but away wins are common in this matchup.

League Table Positions

Neptunas Klaipeda sits 4th in the 1 Lyga overall table with 41 points from 22 matches (13 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses). At home, they are 8th with 21 points from 11 games (7 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Their away record is stronger, ranking 4th with 20 points from 11 games.

Lietava Jonava is 10th in the league with 27 points from 23 matches (7 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses). Their away form is not shown in the top 8, but their overall position highlights a 14-point gap to Neptunas Klaipeda. The table clearly favors the home side in this Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava prediction.

Win Probability: Neptunas Klaipeda or Lietava Jonava?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probability as follows: Neptunas Klaipeda has a 55% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and Lietava Jonava has a 20% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the 1X2 odds (1.72, 3.50, 3.85) as a base, which implies a 58% home win probability before removing the bookmaker margin. We adjusted slightly downward due to the head-to-head record, where Lietava Jonava has won three of the last seven, and Neptunas Klaipeda's inconsistent home form (ranked 8th at home). However, the overall league table gap and recent form still make Neptunas Klaipeda the more likely winner. The question of who will win this match is answered with a confident lean toward the home team.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this 1 Lyga match are: Neptunas Klaipeda win at 1.72, a draw at 3.50, and a Lietava Jonava win at 3.85. Bookmakers see Neptunas Klaipeda as the favorite, which aligns with our betting tips. The home win odds offer value when you consider the 14-point gap in the standings and the fact that Neptunas Klaipeda has won two of the last three H2H meetings. Our final Neptunas Klaipeda vs Lietava Jonava prediction is a home win, with the 1.72 odds being a solid pick for bettors looking at the match outcome market.