Deportivo Maldonado - Liverpool Montevideo prediction 09/10/2026

The Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction for October 9, 2026 is here. This Primera Division match kicks off at 20:00 local time. Based on recent form and head-to-head stats, Liverpool Montevideo enters as the slight favorite with a 40% win probability, while Deportivo Maldonado has a 25% chance and the draw sits at 35%.

Team Form

Deportivo Maldonado comes into this match in strong shape. Their last five results are W, W, W, L, W. In their most recent game on Oct 3, they beat Central Espanol 3-0 at home. Before that, they won 2-0 away at Montevideo City Torque. The only recent loss was a 1-0 defeat at Defensor Sporting on Sep 13.

Liverpool Montevideo also shows good form with results of W, W, D, L, W. They won their last match 3-2 at home against CA Progreso on Oct 3. A 2-1 away win at Central Espanol on Sep 27 followed a 0-0 home draw with Racing Club Montevideo. Their one recent slip was a 3-1 loss at Montevideo City Torque on Sep 14.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these teams favors Liverpool Montevideo. In 12 previous meetings, Liverpool Montevideo has 7 wins, Deportivo Maldonado has 3 wins, and there have been 2 draws. The last match was on Apr 5, 2026, when Deportivo Maldonado won 2-0 away at Liverpool Montevideo. Before that, Deportivo Maldonado also won 2-1 away on Mar 3, 2024. However, Liverpool Montevideo won the three prior encounters, including a 2-0 away win on Dec 2, 2023.

League Table Positions

Both teams are in the Primera Division. The current league table shows no points or games played yet for this phase. Deportivo Maldonado sits in 2nd place and Liverpool Montevideo in 5th, but these positions are based on alphabetical or preliminary ordering with no matches recorded.

Win Probability: Deportivo Maldonado or Liverpool Montevideo?

After analyzing the data, the win probability for this match is: Deportivo Maldonado 25%, draw 35%, Liverpool Montevideo 40%. The odds from bookmakers imply a tight contest. The average odds are around 3.04 for a home win, 2.06 for a draw, and 3.04 for an away win. Removing the margin gives roughly these true probabilities. Liverpool Montevideo's stronger overall head-to-head record (7 wins to 3) and consistent recent away form give them a slight edge. Deportivo Maldonado's excellent recent home form, with three straight home wins, keeps them competitive and boosts the draw probability. The match outcome is likely to be close, but Liverpool Montevideo has a marginally better chance to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a very even match. The best odds available are: Deportivo Maldonado win at 3.25, draw at 2.00, and Liverpool Montevideo win at 3.10. The draw is the shortest price, reflecting how close this game is expected to be. Our Deportivo Maldonado vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction is a draw or a narrow away win. Based on the stats, Liverpool Montevideo is the more likely winner if there is a result, but a draw has a high probability. For betting tips, the draw odds at 2.00 offer value considering the 35% calculated chance.