NK Tomislav Cerna - Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction 09/09/2026

The NK Tomislav Cerna vs Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction for this Croatia Cup match on Sep 09 at 14:30 points to a clear favorite. Based on the odds and recent form, Lokomotiva Zagreb has a 78% chance of winning, the draw sits at 15%, and NK Tomislav Cerna has a 7% chance.

Team Form

NK Tomislav Cerna comes into this match with a solid home record. Their last five results at home are W, L, D, W, W. They beat NK Uljanik 4-0 in the Cup on Aug 26, and also secured wins against Radnicki Dalj and Belisce in Treca HNL. The only recent home loss was a 2-3 against Marsonia 1909 Slavonski Brod.

Lokomotiva Zagreb's recent away form is poor. Their last five away matches show L, L, L, L, W. They lost to NK Slaven Belupo, Hajduk Split, Rudes, and Osijek in HNL, conceding multiple goals in those defeats. The only away win was against HNK Gorica on Aug 08, a 3-1 result.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between NK Tomislav Cerna and Lokomotiva Zagreb. This Cup match will be their first meeting, with no historical data to compare.

League Table Positions

NK Tomislav Cerna plays in Treca HNL, the third tier of Croatian football, while Lokomotiva Zagreb competes in HNL, the top division. The gap in league quality is a key factor in this NK Tomislav Cerna vs Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction. Lokomotiva faces stronger opponents week in and week out, which gives them a significant advantage despite their recent away struggles.

Win Probability: NK Tomislav Cerna or Lokomotiva Zagreb?

We calculate the win probability based on the odds, team form, and the league gap. The bookmakers' odds are home win 18.00, draw 8.20, away win 1.09. After removing the margin, the implied probabilities are around 5% for NK Tomislav Cerna, 11% for the draw, and 84% for Lokomotiva Zagreb. Adjusting for NK Tomislav Cerna's strong home form and Lokomotiva's poor away run, we set the final chances at: NK Tomislav Cerna win 7%, draw 15%, Lokomotiva Zagreb win 78%. Lokomotiva Zagreb is the clear favorite to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

The current 1X2 odds are: NK Tomislav Cerna at 18.00, the draw at 8.20, and Lokomotiva Zagreb at 1.09. Bookmakers see Lokomotiva Zagreb as the heavy favorite. Our NK Tomislav Cerna vs Lokomotiva Zagreb prediction is an away win. The quality difference between a top-division side and a third-division team should decide the match, even with Lokomotiva's recent away losses. A bet on Lokomotiva Zagreb to win offers very low returns, so betting tips may focus on alternative markets like the handicap or total goals, though those stats are not available here.