Hapoel Be'er Sheva - Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction 07/09/2026

The Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction for the Israel Premier League match on Sep 07, 2026, at 17:30 points to a tight contest. Based on the latest odds, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Maccabi Tel Aviv enters as a slight favorite with a 42% win probability, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva has a 25% chance and the draw sits at 33%. The match at Turner Stadium in Be'er Sheva is set to be a close battle between two top sides.

Team Form

Hapoel Be'er Sheva comes into this match with a mixed recent run. Their last five results show two wins, two draws, and one loss (D, W, W, L, W). At home, they drew 2-2 with Hapoel Haifa in the Premier League on Sep 02 and beat Sabah Baku FC 2-1 in the UEFA Champions League Qualification on Aug 19. Their away form includes a 2-1 win at Hapoel Ramat Gan on Aug 29 and a 1-0 cup win at Hapoel Yeroham on Aug 27, but they lost 3-2 at Sabah Baku FC on Aug 25.

Maccabi Tel Aviv's recent form also shows two wins, one draw, and two losses (W, D, W, L, L). They started the Premier League season strong, beating Maccabi Haifa 3-1 at home on Aug 31 and winning 5-2 at Hapoel Jerusalem on Aug 23. In the UEFA Conference League Qualification, they drew 1-1 at home with Lugano on Aug 27 after a 2-1 away loss to the same opponent on Aug 20. A friendly loss to FK IMT Novi Beograd (1-0) on Jul 03 rounds out their recent matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head stats between these two teams show Maccabi Tel Aviv with a clear edge. In 51 previous meetings, Maccabi Tel Aviv has 23 wins, Hapoel Be'er Sheva has 14, and there have been 14 draws. The last five matches tell a similar story: Maccabi Tel Aviv won 2-1 in the Cup on May 26, 2026, and 1-0 in the Premier League on Apr 28, 2026, while Hapoel Be'er Sheva won 4-2 at home on May 19, 2026, and 3-1 away on Apr 12, 2026. The most recent league meeting on Mar 09, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw. This H2H record suggests a competitive rivalry where both teams can score.

League Table Positions

Looking at the early Premier League standings, Maccabi Tel Aviv sits 1st overall with 6 points from 2 matches (2 wins, 8 goals scored, 3 conceded). Hapoel Be'er Sheva is 7th with 4 points from 2 games (1 win, 1 draw, 4 goals for, 3 against). At home, Hapoel Be'er Sheva has not yet played a league match at Turner Stadium this season, while Maccabi Tel Aviv has a perfect away record with 1 win, 5 goals scored, and 2 conceded. The table positions give Maccabi Tel Aviv a slight advantage, but the season is still young.

Win Probability: Hapoel Be'er Sheva or Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Who will win this match? Based on the available odds, team form, and H2H stats, we calculate the win probability as follows: Maccabi Tel Aviv has a 42% chance to win, the draw has a 33% probability, and Hapoel Be'er Sheva has a 25% chance. This calculation starts from the inverse of the average bookmaker odds (home 2.60, draw 2.36, away 2.85), normalized to remove the margin. We then adjust for Maccabi Tel Aviv's stronger H2H record (23 wins to 14), their top position in the league table, and their solid away form. Hapoel Be'er Sheva's home advantage and recent 4-2 win in the last league H2H keep them in the contest, but the overall data points to an away favorite. The high draw probability reflects how often these teams have shared the points historically (14 draws in 51 games).

Odds & Match Prediction

The latest odds from bookmakers show a tight market. The best available 1X2 odds are: Hapoel Be'er Sheva win at 2.70, draw at 2.30, and Maccabi Tel Aviv win at 2.90. Other bookies offer similar lines, with the home win around 2.52-2.60 and the away win between 2.78 and 2.90. The odds imply a close match with no strong favorite. Our Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv prediction is that Maccabi Tel Aviv has the edge based on their league position and H2H dominance, but a draw is a very realistic outcome. Betting tips: the draw at 2.38 offers value given the 33% probability, and the under 2.5 goals market could be worth a look based on recent tight H2H matches.