Elfsborg - Malmo FF prediction 23/10/2026

Elfsborg vs Malmo FF prediction for the Allsvenskan match on Oct 23, 2026, at Borås Arena. Based on the stats, Elfsborg is the favorite with a 42% win probability, while Malmo FF has a 30% chance and the draw is at 28%.

Team Form

Elfsborg comes into this match with a solid run of results. In their last five games, they recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss. The wins came against Halmstads BK (4-0 at home), Djurgardens IF (2-1 away), and Kalmar FF (1-0 at home). The draw was a 2-2 away at Sirius, and the only defeat was a friendly against Hacken. At home, Elfsborg has been strong, sitting 3rd in the home league table with 7 wins, 3 draws, and just 2 losses.

Malmo FF has also shown good form recently, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. They beat Kalmar FF (1-0 at home), FC Nordsjaelland (3-0 in a friendly), and Orgryte (4-1 at home). The defeats were against Hacken (0-1 at home) and Vasteras SK (0-2 away). On the road, Malmo FF is 4th in the away standings with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from 11 games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Malmo FF. In 25 previous meetings, Elfsborg has won 5 times, there have been 4 draws, and Malmo FF has won 16. Looking at the last five encounters, Malmo FF won two, Elfsborg won one, and two ended in draws. The most recent match was on Jul 26, 2026, when Elfsborg beat Malmo FF 2-1 away. Before that, they drew 2-2 in September 2025, and Malmo FF won 2-1 in April 2025.

League Table Positions

In the Allsvenskan overall standings, Elfsborg is 5th with 41 points from 24 games (11 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses). Malmo FF is 7th with 36 points (11 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses). The home table shows Elfsborg in 3rd place with 24 points from 12 matches, while Malmo FF is 4th in the away table with 20 points from 11 away games. Elfsborg has a clear advantage in league position and home performance.

Win Probability: Elfsborg or Malmo FF?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Elfsborg has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Malmo FF has a 30% chance. The bookmakers' odds imply a slightly higher probability for Elfsborg (around 45%), but we adjust for Malmo FF's historical dominance in this fixture and their decent away form. Elfsborg's strong home record and higher league position make them the favorite, but the match is likely to be close.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from several bookmakers show Elfsborg as the favorite. The home win odds range from 1.91 to 2.10, the draw is between 2.25 and 3.55, and an away win for Malmo FF is priced between 3.30 and 3.50. These odds reflect the expectation that Elfsborg will use their home advantage. Our Elfsborg vs Malmo FF prediction is that Elfsborg is more likely to win, but a draw cannot be ruled out. Betting tips should consider the home side's solid form and the historical competitiveness of this fixture.