Merani Martvili - Sioni Bolnisi prediction 16/09/2026

Merani Martvili vs Sioni Bolnisi prediction for the Erovnuli 2 match on Sep 16 at 12:00. The game takes place at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili. Based on the stats, Merani Martvili enters as the slight favorite with a 42% win probability, while Sioni Bolnisi has a 33% chance and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Merani Martvili's recent form is mixed. In their last five matches they have one win, one draw, and three losses. Their most recent game was a 3-1 home win against Aragvi Dusheti on Sep 12. Before that, they lost 2-0 away to Kolkheti Poti, lost 2-1 at home to Gareji, and lost 1-0 away to Telavi. A 0-0 home draw against FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi completes the run.

Sioni Bolnisi's last five results show two draws, two wins, and one loss. They drew 1-1 at home with Kolkheti Poti on Sep 12, and drew 3-3 away to Gareji on Sep 6. Before those draws, they beat Telavi 2-1 at home and won 1-0 away against FC Odishi 1919 Lazika Zugdidi. Their only recent defeat was a 0-1 home loss to Shturmi.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five head-to-head matches, Sioni Bolnisi has the edge with 3 wins, while Merani Martvili has 1 win, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent meeting on Jun 13 saw Sioni Bolnisi win 2-0 at home. Merani Martvili's only win in this run was a 2-1 home victory on Apr 22. The other results: a 1-0 home win for Sioni Bolnisi, a 4-2 away win for Sioni Bolnisi, and a 2-2 draw.

League Table Positions

Merani Martvili sits 4th in the Erovnuli 2 overall table with 34 points from 25 games. They have 9 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, with 28 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home, they are 5th with 22 points from 13 matches (6 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). Sioni Bolnisi is 6th overall with 33 points (8 wins, 9 draws, 8 losses, 33 goals for, 30 against). Away from home, Sioni Bolnisi ranks 7th with just 10 points from 12 games, recording 2 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses.

Win Probability: Merani Martvili or Sioni Bolnisi?

Who will win this match? We calculate the win probability based on odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions. The bookmaker odds imply a tight contest. Taking the best available odds (home 2.15, draw 2.10, away 3.50 from one bookmaker) and removing the margin, the raw probabilities are roughly 42% for a Merani Martvili win, 43% for a draw, and 15% for a Sioni Bolnisi win. However, the draw odds from other bookmakers are much higher (3.38), which normalizes the draw probability downward. Adjusting for Merani Martvili's home advantage (6 home wins vs Sioni Bolnisi's 2 away wins) and recent form, we set the final probabilities at: Merani Martvili win 42%, draw 25%, Sioni Bolnisi win 33%. Merani Martvili has a better chance to win, but the match is fairly open.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 betting odds for this match vary across bookmakers. One offers home win at 2.32, draw at 3.38, away win at 3.08. Another has home 2.20, draw 2.00, away 3.55. A third lists home 2.15, draw 2.10, away 3.50. The odds suggest bookmakers see Merani Martvili as the favorite, but the short draw price from some indicates a close game is expected. Our Merani Martvili vs Sioni Bolnisi prediction: based on the stats, a home win is the most likely single outcome, but betting tips should consider the draw as a real possibility given the H2H history and both teams' inconsistent form.