Mes Kerman - Mes Rafsanjan prediction 12/10/2026

The Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan prediction for October 12, 2026 in the Azadegan League points to an away favorite. Mes Rafsanjan has a 52% win probability, while Mes Kerman sits at 22% and the draw at 26%. The match kicks off at 08:30 local time in Iran.

Team Form

Mes Kerman's recent form is poor. Their last five matches show four draws and one loss: 0-0 at Niroye Zamini, 0-1 at home to Saipa, 1-1 at Fard Alborz FC, 0-0 at home to Navad Urmia FC, and 0-0 at home to Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas. They have not won any of those games and scored just once in five outings.

Mes Rafsanjan comes into this match with much better momentum. Their last five results are three wins, one draw, and one loss: 1-0 at home to Ario, 1-0 at home to Besat Kermanshah, 0-0 at home to Havadar SC, a 2-0 away win at Paykan, and a 0-1 home loss to Esteghlal Khuzestan. They have kept four clean sheets in those five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last ten head-to-head meetings, Mes Kerman has 5 wins, Mes Rafsanjan has 3 wins, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent match was on April 24, 2023 in the Pro League, where Mes Rafsanjan won 1-0 at home. Before that, on June 30, 2020 in the Azadegan League, they played a 0-0 draw. The H2H record shows a slight edge for Mes Kerman historically, but the recent result favors Mes Rafsanjan.

League Table Positions

Mes Rafsanjan is 4th in the overall Azadegan League standings with 8 points from 4 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals scored, 0 conceded). Their home form is even stronger: 1st in the home table with 7 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses).

Mes Kerman does not appear in the top 12 of the overall standings, which suggests they are lower in the table. The available data shows they have struggled to collect points, consistent with their recent form of multiple draws and a loss.

Win Probability: Mes Kerman or Mes Rafsanjan?

Based on the odds, form, and league positions, the win probability for this match is: Mes Kerman 22%, draw 26%, Mes Rafsanjan 52%. The odds from bookmakers show Mes Rafsanjan as the favorite with a draw price around 1.82-1.83 and home/away odds near 3.50-3.60. After normalizing the inverse odds to remove the bookmaker margin, Mes Rafsanjan's implied probability is the highest. We then adjusted for Mes Rafsanjan's superior recent form (three wins in five, solid defense) and their 4th-place standing against a Mes Kerman side that has not won in five and sits outside the top 12. The draw gets a boost from Mes Kerman's four draws in five games and the H2H history of two draws in the last five meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of 3.60 for a Mes Kerman win, 1.83 for the draw, and 3.50 for a Mes Rafsanjan win. These odds make Mes Rafsanjan the favorite, with the draw priced very short. Our Mes Kerman vs Mes Rafsanjan prediction is that Mes Rafsanjan is the more likely winner, but the draw is a real possibility given Mes Kerman's habit of sharing points. Based on the stats, a low-scoring match is expected, with Mes Rafsanjan's defense likely to keep another clean sheet.